688 FXUS62 KMLB 171434 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1034 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 .DISCUSSION... Cloud cover northwest of I-4 is limiting heating and latest hi-res model guidance is indicating this may lead to lower overall coverage of showers and afternoon storms over Lake and Volusia counties. However farther south across much of the rest of east central Florida, enough sunshine is expected to allow temperatures to reach the low 90s leading to greater daytime instability. Morning sounding at the Cape came in with PW value around 1.7 inches, but models indicate there should be some additional moistening in the low level southwest flow through the afternoon. This should be sufficient for scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon, with this activity moving northeastward across the region and offshore through sunset. Have increased rain chances to around 60 percent across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast where greater heating and late day boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze are more likely, which should enhance convection over these areas. Otherwise, kept PoPs around 50 percent elsewhere. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning and gusty winds. Storm motion will be a little faster today around 15 to 20 knots, which should lower the localized heavy rainfall threat. However, with the saturated ground conditions even a quick 1-2 inches could cause additional standing water issues across the area, especially toward the coast. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR with tempo IFR/MVFR conditions in scattered showers and storms that will develop and move northeast across the area this afternoon. Greatest potential for convection will be near to southeast of the I-4 corridor where greater heating will occur. && .MARINE...A gentle to moderate S-SW breeze today weakens and backs slightly tonight as the ridge axis begins to lift north into the local waters south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 1-2FT near shore and 2-3FT offshore today subsiding to 2FT or less tonight. The risk for strong offshore-moving storms continues this afternoon and early this evening, especially north of SIPF1, where SW steering winds will be a little stronger. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 73 90 73 / 50 20 50 30 MCO 90 74 92 76 / 50 20 50 20 MLB 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 30 VRB 91 73 92 73 / 60 20 30 30 LEE 86 74 91 75 / 50 20 50 20 SFB 90 73 93 75 / 50 20 50 20 ORL 90 74 93 76 / 50 20 50 20 FPR 91 74 91 74 / 60 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Weitlich/Spratt