646 FXUS64 KLUB 171112 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 612 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 .AVIATION... A fairly stout low level jet over KCDS will continue bring 40kt winds just off the surface for the next few hours or so. Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form again across the entire region Saturday afternoon. However, coverage and confidence in location is too low to mention in the TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ DISCUSSION... Another hot day is on the way and we also are expecting to see development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms within a surface trough mainly this afternoon and evening, much as the past several days. Moisture plume appears a bit more diffuse this morning, but precipitable water values remain fairly high plus we are seeing an increase in mid level moisture and isolated early morning thunderstorms over the southern panhandle related to a disturbance and a 50 knot upper level wind core steering into the panhandle. The upper level jet stretches far west to the southern Great Basin and will take until later tonight before it pulls to the east and an associated disturbance over the Great Basin lifts into the northern and central plains. Solutions are in reasonable agreement for thunderstorm development within the surface trough though differ quite a bit how far west storm chances will occur. We are compelled to return at least low thunderstorm chances to the forecast for today and tonight. Activity should favor areas off the Caprock tonight. Upper level heights expected to amplify just to the west on Sunday though notable height rises will not occur until Monday. Solutions point to another very hot day with possible limited thunder development, once more within the surface trough and at about the same location as recent days. Heat Index may approach advisory levels some areas Sunday. Thunder chances should be minimal Monday and much of Tuesday until a disturbance rounding the upper ridge pulls convective activity off the Front Range Tuesday night with activity potentially moving through the Texas Panhandle and at least the western and northern South Plains. Wednesday night may offer the best chance for thunderstorms as a more impressive disturbance emerges off the Front Range with activity trending to the southeast or south. Upper pattern later next week seems currently to favor upper ridge somewhere near the Arizona-New Mexico border and either north or northeast flow aloft our area, perhaps void of thunderstorms in our area as indicated by our current forecast, though confidence in a dry forecast is not high. Temperatures will be hot through Monday at least, possibly Tuesday, before declining mid to late week. RMcQueen FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning is being issued for mainly the Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening, but also the adjacent eastern South Plains. Recent days have seen a number of fire starts likely connected to the dry lightning and with Energy Release Components over the 90th percentile and approaching historic highs for mid August. Grasses have dried significantly and with the lightning also has come outflow gusts. We expect another day with isolated to scattered high-based lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Moisture levels are reasonably high, and some locations will certainly see heavy downpours. But areas near the fringe of the heavy rain will not get much benefit from the rain and still have exposure to lightning. Thus, potential for more starts and also potential to fan existing fires. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT tonight for TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044. && $$ 01