470 FXUS63 KIND 170546 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 146 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 146 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A warm and humid air mass will remain in place across Central Indiana into the start of the work week. This along with a lingering frontal boundary near Central Indiana and several passing upper level weather disturbances will result in chances for showers and storms each day through Monday along with above normal temperatures. Periodic showers and storms remain possible much of the next work week. Cooler weather is expected to return late next week. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 146 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Surface analysis early this morning shows weak south to southwest flow in place across Indiana. High pressure was in place across the southeastern states. Low pressure was found over Kansas. A warm and humid air mass had returned to Central Indiana as dew points had returned to the upper 60s and lower 70s. For now radar was quiet...but there were a few showers over Illinois and near the Mississippi river. GFS and NAM both suggest a short wave over Iowa/MO will quickly arrive in central Indiana this afternoon. Time heights show excellent lift...but forecast soundings fail to show deep saturation and convective temps look difficult to reach. Furthermore...models have been having trouble with these subtle short waves and lower level support is not helpful. HRRR shows a area of convection pushing across Central Indiana this afternoon also. THus overall...confidence is low...but some pops will be required...at or below the NBM. Given the expected clouds and possible rain will also trend highs at or below the NBM. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... Issued at 146 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Little change in the models since last night. Aloft a nearly zonal flow is expected to persist through at least Tuesday. A series of weak short waves are depicted to push across Indiana and the ohio Valley tonight through Monday. At the surface...mainly southerly flow remains in place...although a weak front looks to approach the area on Monday. Models have had continued difficulty with these weak short waves...but given the very warm and humid air mass...at least some low chc pops will be needed through Monday. Will trend pops at or below the NBM. Given the expected humid air mass will stick close to the NBM highs and trend lows warmer. Finally on Monday night the GFS seems to suggest the last of these short waves exiting the area as high pressure remains in place aloft across the western Southwestern United States. Thus will trend dry here...but overall confidence is low during this whole period as pops will be highly dependent upon the forcing associated with these subtle waves. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 A potentially unsettled beginning half of the extended timeframe is expected. With elevated heat and humidity across central Indiana, a series of weak upper level disturbances will push across the forecast area from the beginning of the period through Tuesday night...keeping rain chances in the forecast. Above normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. A stronger upper low digs southeast over the Great Lakes on Wednesday...sending a cold front through the area. This front looks to bring some relief from the heat...allowing maximum temps on Thursday and Friday to only rise to the upper 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area. Dry conditions are also expected after the frontal passage. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 17/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1110 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 VFR throughout the period at most sites. LAF may have a period of MVFR Saturday morning in showers and storms. Other sites may have brief forays into MVFR in precip but too uncertain to include now. Winds will generally remain west/southwesterly through the period at 10KT or less. A few showers may pass near LAF early in the period, and showers and a few storms may overspread the other sites Saturday morning, but at this point, these chances have become a bit more uncertain. Will keep a mention out for now. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...Nield