454 FXUS64 KOUN 170000 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... Gusty south wind and VFR conditions are expected until 172400. Thunderstorm chances remain too low for inclusion in TAFs for Saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/ DISCUSSION... Most of the convection that developed across north central Oklahoma this morning has dissipated or moved into northeast Oklahoma. A diffuse outflow boundary from morning convection may help with the develop of a storm of two, mainly where higher dewpoint temperatures and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures remain. Othewise, upslope flow should result in an organized area of convection over the higher terrain this afternoon/evening. Most of this precipitation should remain north of the area given rather warm mid-level temperatures. A few models suggest that confluent mid-level flow over western Oklahoma and a rather strong low level jet may be sufficient for widely scattered showers/few storms by early Saturday morning. If this occurs, most of the precipitation should end by late morning. Another shortwave trough may help in the development of a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Thereafter, slow height rises associated with a building ridge will bring very hot and dry weather through at least the middle of next week. Some relief from the heat may arrive by mid/late week. Models however differ on the strength and southward extent of the cooler air. Heat headlines will likely be needed over the weekend, perhaps early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 98 76 100 / 0 10 20 10 Hobart OK 78 102 78 107 / 20 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 103 78 104 / 0 20 10 0 Gage OK 73 101 73 104 / 20 10 20 10 Ponca City OK 77 97 76 98 / 20 10 20 10 Durant OK 76 97 78 99 / 0 10 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ012-013-017>020- 023>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ 03/09/09