521 
FXUS63 KFGF 161436
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019


Current webcams show that morning fog has dissipated and forecast
remains unchanged. Temperatures seem on track to top out in the
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

All the precipitation has shifted east of the FA early this 
morning, and most of the cloud cover has as well. There is still
one band of clouds moving across northwest Minnesota that may last
a few hours yet. Therefore expect fairly clear skies across the
entire FA before sunrise. Temperature and dew point spreads are
fairly close, with a few stations like Fosston and Fergus Falls
already reporting some fog. It seems like surface winds may stay 
up enough west of the Red River to prevent much fog this morning, 
while east of the Red River winds were lighter. Therefore will 
only mention patchy fog mainly to the east of the Red River 
through sunrise. Not sure it will become more widespread yet, so 
will continue to monitor that for now.

Otherwise, looking like a pretty nice day overall to close out the
work week. Highs should be warmer than yesterday with more sun as
well. Some models are indicating the potential for isolated
afternoon showers again, but will hold off on mentioning any for
now. Winds will turn around to the south tonight and kept that
period dry as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Saturday has been advertised as the next chance for thunderstorms
across the FA. SPC placed the southwest FA in a marginal risk,
with the slight risk area further south. There is still 
considerable uncertainty in the coverage and strength of storms 
for this area. Plenty of moisture should be in place, with high 
precipitable water values. A front is expected to cross the area, 
providing the source of lift. However, there are big differences 
in where the front may be during peak heating. Some of the main 
components do not appear to be coming together either. The best 
heating should be out ahead of the front, while the better upper 
support lags behind it. Also the mid level flow parallels the 
front, so it will not have a strong push behind it. Therefore, 
storms may fire west of the FA with the convective debris cloud 
cover moving out ahead of the storms and shutting down or 
decreasing the heating ahead of the front. If this occurs, highs 
on Saturday could be even cooler than currently anticipated. The 
SPC HREF shows stronger helicity values over South Dakota, and not
much in this FA. For that reason, will have to wait and see how 
things look with later model runs closer to the event.

Saturday night through Thursday: By Saturday evening, the cold front 
associated with any ongoing precipitation will be exiting the area 
to the east. Models differ a bit on the speed of the front (and 
accompanying upper wave) propagating through the area but generally 
agree on some precipitation lingering behind the front itself. 
Conditions should dry out from west to east by midday Sunday as 
surface high pressure builds in. The surface high should make for a 
nice end to the weekend, although relatively cool. 

The mostly quiet conditions will continue into the new work week 
with occasional shower chances and perhaps a rumble of thunder or 
two. As of now, the best chances look to be Monday night and into 
Tuesday but any accumulation would be minor. There are signs of a 
return to a more active pattern by late in the week but it is far 
too soon for any specific details.

The cool August continues with temperatures to remain generally 
below normal for the most part. High temperatures in the 70s will be 
likely most of the period with the exception of maybe some low 80s 
on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Expect areas of fog for the next couple of hours at KTVF/KBJI.
Visibilities have been down as low as a quarter mile at KBJI, but
not quite that low at KTVF. Once this clears out, the rest of the
day should be quiet.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Long
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Lee
AVIATION...Godon