204 FXUS61 KBGM 160721 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 321 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak storm system with unstable air will track across NY and PA today with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The weather will remain unsettled through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 250 AM update... Low stratus this morning will slowly break up toward noon. Afternoon heating will push CAPE values to between 600 and 1000 j/kg, while effective bulk shear values look marginally supportive for strong convection. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists today with the main risks being heavy downpours and damaging winds. The biggest limiting factor will be instability, especially if the low clouds hold on for longer than expected. Temperatures will peak between 75 and 80 degrees. A wave across NY and PA will produce additional shower and thunderstorm activity tonight as temperatures fall into the 60s. Another storm system sliding across our forecast area will cause thunderstorms on Saturday. Once again, a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists, mainly from the Twin Tiers northward. Temperatures will range from the upper-70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM update... Chances of thunderstorms will continue during the second half of the weekend, but temperatures and humidity will be on an upswing. Ridging will be trying to nudge into the area, and temperatures will respond accordingly. However, models continue to advertise multiple waves running through the attempted ridge, or at least flattening flow. A better-marked one of these waves will still be carrying through the area Saturday evening with showers and thunder. Loss of diurnal heating and exit of the wave will allow things to diminish overnight with mainly quiet conditions into Sunday morning. Lows will be mainly lower to mid 60s. Ridging will have a bit more success Sunday, however there will also be more heat and humidity and thus instability. Thermal capping however may somewhat inhibit convection. So while there will still be a chance for diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms, coverage will probably be less than prior days. If a yet-to-be-resolved shortwave ends up embedded within the ridge, there could be better organization but for now we are only carrying 30-40 percent chance. Mid to upper 80s can be expected for highs Sunday, with lowest elevations perhaps close to 90 degrees. This combined with dewpoints of upper 60s-near 70 will yield heat index values into the lower 90s for many. The better chances for showers and thunder will skew northward Sunday night, closer to the belt of westerlies and trailing ends of shortwaves, with lows of mid 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM Update... Warm and humid conditions are still expected early to mid week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, primarily diurnally-driven. Confidence has increased that cooler and drier air will indeed overspread the area late next week, in response to a broad upper low over Hudson Bay that will pivot southeast. This should open the door for high pressure and quiet weather. Previous discussion... A broad and relatively flat upper ridge will build across much of the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with continued warmth and slightly drier weather conditions likely. The overall flow pattern will be flat across the ern Great Lakes into nrn New England...so the increased heat and humidity will combine with weak ripples along the nrn periphery of the ridge to produce chances for afternoon-evening thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday. An upper low over Hudson Bay will eventually rotate e/sewd by the middle of the week with a spoke of energy dropping south across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This wave will have much cooler and drier air associated with it and likely interact with the warm and humid air mass in place to trigger showers and storms along and ahead of the front. Temperatures will still remain near normal and very pleasant...into the upper 70s and lower 80s...behind the front. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low stratus will form early Friday morning and lower ceilings to between 1500 and 2500 feet at many of our terminals. Clouds will persist until mid-morning or early-afternoon, then partly sunny skies will develop with VFR conditions. Another round of scattered thunderstorms is forecast for the afternoon and early evening, though the odds are low for any terminal to receive a direct hit. Winds will be light through the forecast period. Outlook... Friday night to Saturday...MVFR to VFR conditions with scattered showers possible. Sunday to Tuesday...Restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...BJT/MDP AVIATION...DJP