785 FXUS61 KBGM 152353 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 753 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal system with unstable air will track across NY and PA tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The weather will remain unsettled through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 630 pm update... Just minor changes. Showers and severe thunderstorms continue. 3 pm update... A weak surface trough in eastern Ohio will move slowly east and weaken further tonight. A short wave will move through our area into tonight. In addition an upper level jet is on the east coast providing added lift. With surface heating today, cape has increased to 1500 in the far west and southwest. Deep shear in the same area is 40 kts. This area coincides with the better thunderstorm coverage and the slight chance of severe on the day 1 from the storm prediction center. In the northeast still stable and dry. Showers and thunderstorms will push northeast into tonight with the short wave. The slow movement of the thunderstorms has caused heavy rain to add up to 2 or 3 inches in Luzerne County with flooded roads. Will need to watch for training as more storms develop. pwats around 1.25" with slow movement this afternoon increasing tonight. Another short wave late tonight will increase the coverage across Syracuse and Utica. With the clouds and high dewpoints, low temperatures will be mostly in the low 60s. Friday will be similar with more showers and thunderstorms. Diurnal heating will help with the instability as temperatures rise to the upper 70s. Forcing will be weaker than today. Friday night showers and thunderstorms taper off with the lack of heating. Lows in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 330 pm update... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the persistent chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with temperatures warming well above average. Large scale synoptic pattern will remain defined by weak cyclonic flow with embedded short waves rotating across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast through the weekend. The first, slightly more amplified, wave will track e/ne through central NY on Saturday, and combine with modest instability to trigger more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Saturday will climb into the lower 80s with dew points in the upper 60s making it feel like the mid 80s. Conditions will be even hotter on Sunday with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s...close to 90. The highest heat indices will be in the lower 90s along the lake plain of the nrn Finger Lakes and in the valley locations of the srn tier of NY and ne PA. A weaker wave rotates through on Sunday, but should still be able to combine with modest to high instability by the afternoon to generate more showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 330 pm update... A broad and relatively flat upper ridge will build across much of the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with continued warmth and slightly drier weather conditions likely. The overall flow pattern will be flat across the ern Great Lakes into nrn New England...so the increased heat and humidity will combine with weak ripples along the nrn periphery of the ridge to produce slight chances for thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. An upper low over Hudson Bay will eventually rotate e/sewd by the middle of the week with a spoke of energy dropping south across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This wave will have much cooler and drier air associated with it and likely interact with the warm and humid air mass in place to trigger showers and storms along and ahead of the front. Temperatures will still remain near normal and very pleasant...into the upper 70s and lower 80s...behind the front. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 730 pm update... convection has moved into the entire area. MVFR vsby restrictions in heavy rain. Brief MVFR cig restrictions in a few. ELM gusted to 28 kts. Thunderstorms will continue at all sites for another 2 or 3 hours. After that mostly dry except showers at RME. Restrictions likely late tonight at all sites. Most restrictions will be due to cigs falling to MVFR but at ELM vsbys should also be MVFR. AVP/BGM/ITH should fall to fuel alternate MVFR 10 to 15z. All NY sites go to VFR by 18z. Tonight winds light and variable. Winds turn south late tonight and continue through Friday. Outlook... Friday night to Saturday...MVFR to VFR conditions with scattered showers possible. Sunday to Tuesday...Restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...TAC