666 FXUS64 KMEG 152325 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 625 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019/ DISCUSSION... Currently quiet conditions outside with temperatures slightly below average in the north to right at seasonal averages elsewhere. Winds were mainly northwest through north with speeds of 5-10 mph. Skies were mostly sunny and humidity levels were very tolerable. For tonight through Saturday...weak surface high pressure anchored over the mid Mississippi River will shift east to the Mid Atlantic states tomorrow...and generally fizzle there over the weekend. This will allow for winds to veer southerly over the region and the slow return of higher gulf moisture. The western counties will see the greatest change...and afternoon heat indices may reach close to heat advisory criteria by Saturday. The remaining Midsouth will top out between 95-and 100F. CAM's show a 10 percent chance of a shower or storm skirting across the north tomorrow on the southern fringes of a disturbance crossing central Missouri...otherwise expect dry conditions this period. Sunday through Wednesday...models are in good agreement that the Midsouth will remain pinned between the Bermuda High to the east and a drier Plateau High over the desert southwest. This weakness will provide for a diurnal threat for showers and storms with the best coverage across the eastern counties...especially on Monday and Tuesday as a weak low forms over Alabama. Highs this period will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s with the continuing potential for a heat advisory in the west. This low-end threat is reflected in the afternoon HWO. Rain chances will range from 20-40 percent...with timing from early afternoon through mid evening. Wednesday night into next Thursday...long range solutions suggest a cold front will slowly slide south through the Midwest. Rain chances will be slightly higher and mainly across the northern two-thirds of the area. Though high temperatures will cool slightly...higher dewpoints in the mid 70s could pool along the boundary. JAB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF cycle VFR conditions should continue for the entire forecast period. Some patchy areas of fog may develop overnight in the KMKL area. Winds will be mainly from the north at 5 to 10 knots this evening before diminishing and slowly shifting to the south overnight. Winds will be mainly from the south at 5 to 10 knots on Friday. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$