024 FXUS61 KBGM 150525 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 125 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal system with unstable air will track across NY and PA this afternoon and evening, setting off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The weather will remain unsettled into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 745 pm update...A weak surface trough is kicking off some isolated showers in Steuben County, so added that to the forecast until 01Z as they will likely dissipate after sunset. 3 PM Update... A weak boundary is still in the far southeast from the southern Catskills to the Wyoming Valley. This is providing some focus for isolated showers there into the Poconos. This boundary and the showers will continue to slowly sink south the rest of today so the showers will exit the northern Poconos by 10 PM. A thunderstorm or two is still possible and a few have occurred. Low level instability is decent with max cape of 500 to 1k. Shear is moderate with 40 kts of effective shear. Some locations could get rainfall of up to an inch. Tonight drier air will continue to push south as high pressure slowly builds in. Winds go calm or light so radiational valley fog is likely across south central NY and maybe NEPA. In NEPA to the southern Catskills, a stratus deck will set up with lingering moisture. Fog there may be only at the highest elevations with the lowering stratus. Lows in the mid and upper 50s except the far south in the lower 60s. Thursday moister streams in from the southwest ahead the next short wave and weak surface trough. The best forcing will be across the west and north where the surface low lifts northeast just to the west of them. Highs again around 80. Went a degree above guidance which has been cold the last few days. Thursday night showers continue with low temperatures around 60. Some locations from the central southern tier to the western Mohawk Valley could get localized amounts up to an inch in thunderstorms. Shear and instability will be weak to moderate with no severe weather expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main concerns in the short term are centered around the continuing threat for showers and afternoon/evening storms Friday and Saturday, along with the start of a warming trend. Large scale pattern remains basically cyclonic across the ern Great Lakes and Northeast going into the weekend with a persistent southwesterly flow. A weak ill-defined surface trough will also remain draped ne to sw across the region...and help to focus scattered showers and storms over central NY and ne PA. Best chance of convection will be during the afternoon and evening. Conditions should become relatively unstable as the mixed layer deepens and lapse rates steepen. ML CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 30-35 kt...will likely prove sufficient to initiate convection both days. Passing upper short waves will aid in the broad large scale lift...and when combined with around 1-1.5 inch PWATs should allow for a few strong thunderstorms. Temperatures on Friday will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s...and remain fairly mild Friday night, only into the lower to mid 60s. On Saturday, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, into the lower 80s over much of the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with more chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms. The difference early next week will be noticeable increase in temperatures and humidity. The overall pattern remains generally cyclonic...but slightly flatter. The atmosphere will make up for the lack of dynamics with an increase in thermodynamics. Highs in the mid to upper 80s...with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. There doesn't appear to be any real strong forcing mechanism through Tuesday, but there should be enough instability around to fire off showers and storms nearly every afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for most of the next 24 hours. A broken middeck over KELM this morning should preclude dense fog formation, though a light MVFR mist is expected around sunrise. Light winds and partly sunny skies will prevail today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and produce temporary MVFR restrictions through early evening. Outlook... Thursday night to Saturday...MVFR to VFR conditions with scattered showers possible. Sunday to Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...DJP