571 
FXUS63 KGLD 142345
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Updated the forecast to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582 in
effect until 9 PM MDT this evening. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Today, we will see once again warm surface temperatures, in the 
mid to upper 80s, moderate deep-layer shear and instability, steep
lapse rates, prevailing again over our CWA. Although the threat 
is slightly less today, our strongest threats will once again be 
along the Colorado / Kansas border. We are expecting another round
of discrete supercells producing large hail, up to 3 inches, 
damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a potential tornado or two. This 
will be followed by transitioning to a wind threat in the evening.
Additional forcing from a shortwave will aid in sustaining 
convective development into the late overnight hours, which flash 
flooding will continue to be a concern. 

Thursday, we may see a few severe storms. SPC currently has our
area split diagonally between a slight risk to a marginal risk.
Tonight's convection will help to aid or lessen the extent to how
much the environment will get worked over. Regardless, expecting
convective development with peak afternoon heating and lasting
through the evening hours. Guidance is still quite a bit in
disagreement as to what will happen, so confidence remains low at
this time as to extent of impacts to the Tri-State area. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the extended period...upper level flow at 500 mb starts off 
zonal on Thursday night with a flat upper ridge over the southern 
half of the country. Several shortwaves will be moving thru the 
central Plains along the northern periphery of the ridge. Going into 
the upcoming weekend...pattern shift in the upper flow as both the 
GFS/ECMWF begin to nose the ridge into the Plains from the 
southwest. This will be aided in part by a digging shortwave into 
the Pacific northwest. Ridge will become further amplified going 
into the first half of next as upper flow becomes more 
southwesterly. 

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms into the first 
portions of the weekend and again by the midway portion of next 
week. The in-between period will be affected by the building ridge.

PW values are lower for a good portion of the extended ranging from 
0.75"-1.00" but any storms that occur could have locally heavy 
rainfall potential...especially the eastern half of the area. There 
is some instability as well which could afford the CWA some 
strong/severe storm potential...but will be dependent on the 
location/strength of the surface features associated with the 
passing shortwaves.

For temps...a shift from zonal to SW flow aloft will afford the 
region a warming trend that will have daytime highs in the mid to 
upper 80s to start...but lift into the mid 90s by midweek next week. 
Overnight lows will trend from mainly upper 50s Thursday night to 
mid/upper 60s by next Tuesday/Wednesday nights. Low daytime RH 
values in the 20s-30s percent will keep heat index values in check.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Southeast winds
around 12kts at taf issuance will veer to the south then west then
north for the remainder of the period with speeds up to 13kts with
perhaps some higher gusts at times...primarily during the day
Thursday. Showers/thunderstorms northwest of the terminal at
present time are showing a southeast movement near 30 mph and
could impact the terminal around 01z. Have added a thunder mention
for the 01z-02z timeframe. 

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Gusty east winds
at taf issuance will subside by 02z and remain from an east to
northeast direction at speeds under 10kts. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for 
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EV
SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99