562 FXUS63 KTOP 132028 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 328 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The mid-level flow across the CONUS is more zonal today, with higher pressures residing across the southern tier of the country and lower pressures generally throughout the northern tier. 19Z water vapor imagery showed that an area of convection was developing in western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado near a surface low and associated frontal boundary. Surface pressure has been slowly increasing across the area today as a ridge axis slides into the area from the north behind yesterday's front. Drier air and subsidence associated with the higher pressure was allowing dewpoints to drop and skies to clear. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The thunderstorms forming west of the area this afternoon are expected to develop into a cluster of storms tonight and move southeastward into central Kansas. Some of the CAMS models are showing precipitation clipping the western CWA overnight. The NAM and RAP have around 1000 J/Kg of MLCAPE in central KS with weak bulk shear as storms approach. Forcing should be limited over the CWA, but have included a slight chance for POPs tonight in central and north-central portions of Kansas. Some relief from the heat and high humidity is coming for tomorrow. Surface high pressure should dominate conditions, which will allow for mostly sunny skies and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs will range from near 80 degrees in northern Kansas to the mid 80s in east-central Kansas. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s, which will be a noticeable improvement from recent mid 70 degree dewpoints. Enjoy the nice day! .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The main challenge in the later periods is precipitation chances. The region will be on the southern fringe of the main flow with multiple notable shortwave moving southeast to east across the northern CONUS. As surface high pressure pushes off to the east, low to mid-level warm-air advection will generally increase in depth and strength over the first few periods of this period. The most consistent signal for northeastern portions of the state to be under the greater convergence is Thursday night into early Friday, though there continue to be some model differences. The jet orientation under the WNW flow aloft could set up training cells and bring flooding potential. There will be at least small potential for severe wind and hail as deep shear and instability increase. The northern wave train continues into the weekend with perhaps the stronger forcing coming Friday night into early Saturday and Saturday night into early Sunday and precipitation chances were increase for these periods. There is fairly good agreement in the upper ridge building northeast into the Rockies and northern Plains for decreasing precipitation chances early next week. Other than the potential for convection to persist into the middle portions of the daytime periods, temperatures appear to be close to normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 VFR conditions are currently forecast through the TAF period, but a diurnally driven scattered cumulus deck around 3000 ft has developed over terminals at midday. Cumulus will dissipate when heating subsides. Hi-res models are starting to hint at storms developing near KMHK overnight, but confidence is not currently high enough to include in TAFs. Will monitor trends for next TAF issuance. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Teefey SHORT TERM...Teefey LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Teefey