954 FXUS61 KBTV 130226 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front sagging south into the area this evening will spark a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across northern counties. As the front slips south the focus of showers shifts to southern counties during Tuesday as low pressure passes across the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England. High pressure then returns for Wednesday with seasonably warm and dry weather expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1025 PM EDT Monday...Forecast in real good shape with just a tweak of temperatures and dew points as front still lagging north of the border and clouds helping to keep temperatures up a bit. Rest of forecast remains unchanged. Previous Discussion... After a dry day across the North Country, watching the development of some showers just north of the International Border ahead of a frontal boundary over ON/QC. Mesoanalysis showing an area of instability (500+ J/kg MLCAPE) north of the border where the showers are, but little instability further south into northern NY and northern Vermont. As such, not looking at a widespread thunderstorm threat this evening over the North Country, with the majority of any storms that do develop expected to remain north of the International Border. However, cannot rule out a stray embedded thunderstorm rolling across the border this evening...with the main threat being some locally gusty winds given the amount of dry air in the low and mid-levels. The chance for thunderstorms quickly diminishes later this evening with loss of diurnal instability, but chances for some scattered showers continue into the overnight hours. A weak cold front will slowly drop south over the North Country tonight. However, the impacts of this frontal passage will be minimal with little to no low-level convergence along the boundary, lack of upper support and moisture, and lack of instability during the overnight hours. Despite the marginal setup, should see some isolated to scattered showers overnight as the front moves through. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest near the International Border and warmer further south. During the day Tuesday, a wave of low pressure will track eastward from the Great Lakes along a stalled frontal boundary. The center of the compact low, along with the heaviest rainfall, will stay well to our south as it tracks through northern Pennsylvania/southern New York and off the southern New England Coast. This track will bring some rain to southern/central Vermont and portions of the northern Adirondacks, but areas along and near the Canadian Border will stay mainly dry. Total precipitation amounts for Tuesday will range from little to no precipitation along and near the International Border up to a quarter inch further south in Rutland and Windsor Counties of Vermont. Highs Thursday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Tuesday night will quickly trend drier as the system pulls away to the southeast and high pressure starts to build in. Overnight temperatures will be quite cool with readings expected in the low to mid 50s down to the mid 40s in parts of the northern Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 349 PM EDT Monday...No real changes from previous forecast with quiet and dry weather expected through the period under the influence of Canadian high pressure. Gorgeous day on tap for Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70s under light northerly winds. We should decouple and radiate really well Wednesday night with 1021mb high bringing the return of cool overnight lows with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Patchy valley fog is likely in the favored river valleys. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 349 PM EDT Monday...Overall, a relatively benign period of weather expected through the extended. Thursday will be another beautiful day with low humidities and cool temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be warmer than Wednesday with increasing humidity and clouds ahead of a weak low and associated surface trough for Friday. Overall models agree pretty well with precipitation chances increasing Thursday night into Friday, although QPF amounts still differ among model solutions. After this, temperature rebound back into the mid 80s for the remainder of the extended ahead of a deepening trough and perhaps more widespread rain chances for Sunday/Monday. Overnight lows will remain relatively seasonable in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Isolated to scattered convection will continue along the Canadian Border through about 04z before areal coverage begins to decrease and move south as weak cold front moves down into the region. Ceilings will generally be VFR...but MVFR ceilings will develop across the area between 04z and 12z...before trending back to VFR. Visibilities will generally be VFR through the period. Winds will generally be under 10 knots with a shift to the north and west after 18z. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Evenson/Duell SHORT TERM...LaRocca LONG TERM...LaRocca AVIATION...Evenson/Duell