798 FXUS63 KFGF 121815 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Widespread shower activity has continued to progress to the northeast throughout the early afternoon. These rain showers have caused expected high temperatures to be lower from Grand Forks towards Devils Lake. Current expected highs are in the lower to mid 60s. The showers are expected to decrease in intensity as they move into northwestern Minnesota. The warmest temperatures in the area will be near 70 degrees in the Baudette area and in the lower 70s in southeastern ND. Some convection is possible south of I-94 this afternoon and evening if clearing takes place over the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Issue today and tonight (and Tuesday) rainfall chances/amounts. One 500 mb short wave axis from E SD into NE KS and with this is a large MCS moving thru the Omaha area. Farther north the northern end of the short wave axis generating an area of light rain into SE ND with even a few showers developing in mid level warm advection regime over Devils Lake area. This light rain in SE ND should progress slowly east thru the dawn/mid morning hours and possibly still linger thru the midday as it moves east thru WC MN. But it will also run into increasingly drier air so its fate is not certain. Light rain amounts regardless. 500 mb low in north central Montana and SW Sask at 08z and a short wave trough moving northeast on the SE side of this caused considerable t-storm activity in E MT earlier and this area moving thru W ND and NW SD at 08z. Some thunder still exists mainly west of Bismarck to north of Rapid City but overall it is weakening slowly. But still enough moisture present esp in the mid levels to keep this band of showers in tact as they move east into E ND later today. So trend today for the forecast area is scattered rain showers with embedded t-storms. Instability present isnt much at all but does peak late aftn more so in central ND ahead of another wave coming around the upper low which will be in far S Saskatchewan. 1000-2000 j/kg psbl in mostly area JMS-BIS-MOT so a strong storm is psbl. SPC has this area incl our far W fcst area in marginal risk for severe storms later today. This may be a bit too far east as I think best chc for any stronger storm activity is closer to JMS-BIS-MOT axis. Shower chances thru the night with risk of t-storms. Really hard to pin point any one place with higher chances with short term models having usual variability and coverage ideas. So for now liked idea of a mid range pop for scattered showers/isold thunder. Thru tonight rainfall for most not impressive...one quarter to half inch. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Tuesday will see the upper low in Sask drop southeast thru the fcst area with area of showers and a few t-storms with it. Once again coverage for now kept scattered. Tuesday night to Sunday... Northwesterly H5 flow prevails across the northern Plains Tuesday through Friday with a transition to westerly flow heading into the weekend. After a cool Wednesday morning, temperatures will moderate by mid week with seasonal high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected by weeks end. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly for the southeastern corner of the CWA as a shortwave quickly moves off to the southeast. Wednesday remains dry through the early afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms becoming possible through the late afternoon into the evening hours in response to another transient H5/H7 shortwave. Slight rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday. At this point, we begin to see a shift in the upper pattern with H5 flow becoming more westerly late in the day on Friday. Transient shortwaves look to remain a nearly daily occurrence however, and slight chance to chance PoPs are in the forecast through the weekend and possibly into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 For the TAF period, areas of MVFR and IFR ceilings have been reported within the rain showers, especially near Grand Forks. Other sites have mostly remained at VFR. As the day continues, guidance has pointed at ceilings lowering for several areas as cooling takes place with even some areas of fog possible. Locations could expect to see MVFR from sunset through the overnight hours. Winds have been light and are not expected to increase. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon/Wasilewski SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...Godon/Wasilewski