056 
FXUS63 KFGF 111152
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Patchy dense fog has been reported at a few locations (Valley City
and Park Rapids) as moisture has pooled near frontal zone and
winds have remained light. Adjustment made to account for current
shower coverage/position with activity still lingering near
Highway 2 corridor. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Cold front actively moving over our CWA with light shower activity 
and low clouds trailing near the Highway 2 corridor slowly drifting 
east and southeast. CAMs indicate this will continue do decrease in 
coverage as is moves southward towards the I-94 corridor and should 
end by midday (though a few models have isolated activity lingering 
south). There should be clearing north to south, but with cooler 
temps aloft in post frontal air mass highs should still be cooler 
despite potential for warming. Still, if there was clearing in the 
south near where frontal zone may wash out or stall we could have a 
few locations reach 80F (otherwise 70s most of our CWA).

Tonight-Monday night: Still monitoring upper trough expected to ride 
along International Border and close off Monday, with period of WAA 
overspreading stalled frontal zone. PWATs with this system will  
remain in the 1.00-1.5 range, supportive of at least moderate if 
not heavy rainfall. Several periods of more organized strong 
vorticity rotate around this upper low and move over our CWA late 
tonight through Monday afternoon. Upper low then transitions east 
through Monday night. Trend is for several periods of widespread 
showers/embedded thunderstorms orientated along these axis of 
better forcing to rotate eastward then slow or decrease in 
coverage/intensity down as spread further east in our CWA. 
Instability isn't high but there should be enough at times for 
some thunderstorm activity which could lead to locally higher 
rates even outside of more organized bands (strongest convective 
signal is further west on some CAMs). 

As main upper low transitions east there may actually be a dry slot 
over our CWA Monday that creates a lull in more intense/organized 
areas of rain (though drizzle/sprinkles could linger due to low 
levels remaining saturated). Ultimately most locations should 
receive around 0.25" or more during this event, but the locations 
that have closer to 1" or more may be over smaller areas with 
eastern ND more likely to receive those amounts than northwest MN. 
Some guidance shows much less making it into the northern RRV. 
Coverage/timing of precip will play a role in temps and many 
locations where widespread precip/thick cloud cover linger will 
remain in the 60s Monday. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Upper trough responsible for early week rain event will move out of 
the region on Tuesday, however a prolonged period of showers and a 
few storms will continue over the east on Tuesday.  Zonal flow over 
the Northern Rockies transitions into NW flow aloft by Wed.  Expect 
a short break in activity Tue night and Wed before an upper wave in 
the NW flow brings another round of showers/storms to the region 
late Wed night into Thu.  Confidence for this round, however, is low 
due to GFS/ECMWF being out of phase at 12Z Thu (GFS shwoing ridging 
over the Rockies and H500 low off coast of PAC NW placement is off). 
For remainder of work week into the upcoming weekend, these timing 
differences yielding low POPs for much of the latter half of the 
period due to forecast blends...but a series of waves likely with 
the zonal to NW flow.  Timing will be key issues as this time period 
gets nearer.  Temperatures will generally be in the 70s for most of 
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Isolated to scattered showers from KGFK to KBJI this morning. 
Stratus building southward with front and brief LIFR ceilings have
been reported at times (KFAR currently), with most ceilings IFR 
to MVFR. Fog has also developed south of Highway 200 corridor. I 
can't rule out lower vis at KFAR early in the TAF period, but 
wasn't confident enough to introduce more than MVFR vis group. 
Other terminals in southeast ND and west central MN have variable 
visibilities 1/4 to 5sm. Expect fog and any lingering showers to 
end this morning, with clearing trend this afternoon. Additional 
showers spread into eastern ND after 09Z tonight and after 12Z 
into MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...DJR