063 FXUS62 KFFC 110716 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019 .SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... NW flow persists across the area this morning, but high pressure will begin to push in from the west later today and last through the remainder of the short term period. At the surface, a weak boundary is situated across central GA. This boundary will push south through today as high pressure builds in from the north. As high pressure builds in from the north and aloft, the PWATs will decrease, especially north of the weak surface boundary. With the drier air filtering in from the north, the best chances from pops will be along and south of the slow moving surface boundary and across the higher terrain of far NE GA both today and tomorrow. Pops should only range from the 20-30% range. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. No changes needed to the Heat Advisory at this time. Will likely need another one on Monday for a similar area. NListemaa .LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... Extended forecast grids generally populated with a model blend. Medium-range models in good agreement to begin with showing flat upper ridging over the region transitioning to a broad upper trough by the latter half of the upcoming work week. Associated cold front moves into the state mid-week and lingers over the area through the end of the week. Models begin diverging somewhat as we head into the weekend, but keep the eastern U.S. under broad upper troughing. All- in-all, forecast area transitions from the very warm pattern we have been in to a much wetter and more seasonal temperature pattern. 20 && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions expected overnight. SCT-BKN050 during the day. Pops will be minimal, and the VCSH still looks appropriate for the northern TAF sites. Main forecast challenge for today will be the timing of the wind shift. The wind shift is still on track for around 11-12Z. Wind speeds will be light, so some flopping right around due north is possible from 10-14z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 73 94 74 / 10 10 20 10 Atlanta 94 75 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 Blairsville 88 67 86 69 / 20 20 30 20 Cartersville 95 74 95 75 / 5 10 10 10 Columbus 96 76 96 77 / 30 20 20 10 Gainesville 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 20 10 Macon 96 75 96 75 / 30 20 20 10 Rome 96 73 96 75 / 0 5 10 10 Peachtree City 95 74 95 75 / 20 20 20 10 Vidalia 96 76 95 75 / 50 40 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley... Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel... Glascock...Hancock...Harris...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson... Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Monroe... Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley... Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs... Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster... Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...NListemaa