130 FXUS66 KMFR 102118 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 218 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019 .DISCUSSION...2:00 PM Radar are showing showers starting to fire with a few embedded thunderstorms across northern California. These thunderstorms will move into southern Oregon in the next few hours. This is all due to a low pressure system which is centered over Brookings, Oregon at the moment. This low will continue moving eastward and and showers and storms will become more prominent in the afternoon and evening hours. High resolution storm allowing models have indicated that the storms will begin pushing eastward after 6 PM, and the storms could exit the West Side after 8 PM and areas of south Central Oregon and Modoc County by midnight. These storms, although could produce decent rainfall, will still have the potential to start new fires. Additionally, some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing some small hail. Although the hail would be small in nature, large amounts of it could cover roadways and create slippery conditions over roads. Finally, one or two storms today could approach severe limits (60 mph winds, 1 inch hail). Overall, tonight is not expected to be like last night. Then, zonal flow (west to east) aloft takes control, and the showers and thunderstorms will end tonight. Things begin to dry out before another low drops into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday evening. This low is expected to stay to our north, keeping the thunderstorm threat it could bring to our north. This low would need to continue being monitored because if it drops farther south, we could see some additional thunderstorms. That being said, that is pretty unlikely at this time. This low, on the other hand, will keep temperatures cooler and may produce some light drizzle to the coast north of Cape Blanco. South of Cape Blanco, the thermal trough redevelops, so areas south of the Umpqua Divide could see a little warmer temperatures. Overall, this benign pattern continues through the extended period. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...For the 10/18Z TAFs...The main threat through this evening will be thunderstorms, some of which could be strong-- producing gusty winds up to 35 kts and small hail up to a half an inch. Thunderstorms will increase as the afternoon progresses, continue through this evening, then decreasing late this evening and tonight. The three main threats are gusty and erratic winds outside of the core of storms, heavy rain and hail. Roseburg, Medford and Klamath Falls airports are all under the threat for thunderstorms near by or overhead through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will result in higher terrain becoming at least partly obscured while heavy rain could result in occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. Thunderstorms will decrease in intensity and coverage late this evening and tonight. But MVFR CIGS will continue overnight, especially at the coast. -Schaaf && .MARINE...Updated 115 PM PDT Saturday 10 August 2019...Winds and seas will remain relatively calm through Monday, except for locally gusty winds near heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms through later this afternoon. Beginning Monday evening, a thermal trough will strengthen along the coast. This will bring increasing north winds and steep seas to areas south of Cape Blanco Tuesday and persisting through Friday. Conditions hazardous to small craft are likely during the Tuesday through Friday time frame south of Cape Blanco. -Miles && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday 10 August 2019...Isolated to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of the forecast area through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this evening from west to east. Based on latest data, we did extend the Red Flag Warning over FWZ 622, 621, and 281 through 10 PM. Red Flag Warnings continue through 10pm this evening from the Cascades eastward, and until 5pm this afternoon for Josephine County and Western Douglas County. Wetting rains, hail, and gusty outflow winds are likely with some of the storms this afternoon and evening. Sharply warmer and drier conditions are expected Sunday, with high temperatures right around normal Sunday through Tuesday. Tuesday in particular looks relatively dry, breezy, and warm compared to other days next week, so any "sleeping" lightning strikes could "wake up" Sunday or Monday but especially Tuesday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ616-617-620>625. CA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281-284-285. Pacific Coastal Waters...None. $$