023 
FXUS63 KEAX 091122
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 432 AM CDT FRI AUG 9 2019

Early morning satellite imagery and radar show quiet weather across 
eastern Kansas and western Missouri as high pressure builds into the 
forecast area. Convection remains ongoing this morning across 
southwest Kansas and extending eastward across Oklahoma and into 
northern Arkansas. This activity is tied to a quasi-stationary front 
that will be the primary focus for storms well south of the
forecast area later today. Closer to home the forecast is 
expected to remain fairly quiet today. Areas of patchy dense fog 
will dissipate as boundary layer mixing establishes later this 
morning. As we head into the afternoon, we could see some very 
slight chances of an isolated storm or two popping up...generally
from NE Kansas to central Missouri and south where weak 
convergence will exist along with an 800-1500 J/kg CAPE axis.

An upper level trough will move inland along the West Coast Saturday...lifting
across the PacNW by Saturday night and then into Canada by Sunday
night. In response to this trough, the ridge will dampen with 
flow becoming more zonal by early next week. The stationary front 
will begin to push northward as a warm front Saturday in response
to strengthening WWA ahead of this upper trough. Temperatures 
will climb through the weekend with highs back in the 90s by 
Monday. A weak wave rounding the ridge will spark convection along
the higher terrain Saturday afternoon that will track eastward 
across northern KS and southern Nebraska overnight. Models bring 
this activity into our area early Sunday morning with it weakening
and falling apart by late morning. In addition to storms moving 
in from the west-northwest...increased insentropic lift along the
warm front may initiate some scattered storms Saturday night from
northeast Kansas southeastward to southeast Missouri. 

Several more chances for storms are expected next week as the 
somewhat unsettled pattern continues. A cold front will bring 
temperatures back down into the 80s by midweek.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT FRI AUG 9 2019

Patchy fog will mix out between 13-15Z allowing LIFR/MVFR vsby to
improve to VFR. A weak boundary across the area may allow for some
isolated thunderstorms after 20Z but anything that develops should
start to dissipate near sunset. Winds will remain light out of the
east-southeast with SCT/BKN cloud deck building into the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...PPietrycha