758 FXUS63 KDLH 080523 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 Updated for the 06Z aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 A cold front is crossing through the forecast area this afternoon bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. These storms will move into a more favorable environment for strong convection as they proceed into NW WI. Here the CAPE environment is expected to get better throughout the afternoon, but debris from convection upstream may limit the environment capabilities and potential destabilization. Meanwhile a better shear environment is advecting in towards that region, so overall expect some strong convection, but probably only isolated severe storms possible as shear profiles are not optimal for rotating storms. There is some potential to get the storms moving quickly with mean storm motions cruising at 35 to 40 knots, so if a storm can produce a small outflow it could be exacerbated by the storm's speed. The SPC has NW WI in a slight risk area for severe weather. The cold front will drift southeast tonight and the area will largely be void of shower activity into Thursday. A slow moving upper low will gradually make its way eastward and may spark some shower activity near the Canadian Border Thursday afternoon, but for now, have kept the mention out of the forecast due to low confidence in areal placement. Given the rainfall today, and light wind speeds overnight, fog is possible tonight, but should quickly erode as wind speeds are expected to increase Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 Northwest flow aloft will cover the forecast area on Friday while high pressure is in place over the surface through Friday evening. Late Friday night a mid level trof approaches from the west with an opportunity for some showers and storms moving into northeast Minnesota. Northwest Wisconsin should remain dry Friday night with the surface high nearby. Another sharper mid level trof moves through the region on Saturday accompanied by a robust vorticity maxima moving through on the fast northwest flow. Additional showers and storms are on tap Saturday. A cold front will move through the region Saturday night with more showers and storms possible in the vicinity of the front. The front will depart by late Saturday night allowing high pressure to cover the area on Sunday. Model differences show up Sunday night with the GFS/ECMWF keeping high pressure over the region, while the GEM brings in the next round of showers and storms late to the western third of the area. A blend with the previous forecast gives the low pops to the western area. Will have pops slowly ramp up for Monday through Tuesday as the models are trending toward a slow moving upper level short wave trof affecting the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. There is a small chance for fog development in the 09z-13z time range, but for now there appears to be too much dry air and light northwest winds to produce fog, despite the recent rainfall. In the 15z to 00z time range northwest winds should increase, with gusts approaching 20kts, then decreasing again after 00z to less than 10kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 High pressure to the southwest of the lake will result in quiet weather tonight through Thursday night. Southwest winds will increase Thursday to 10 to 15 knots with gusts approaching 20 knots on Thursday, though the fetch distance and duration are not long enough to produce waves over 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed, but have held off for now as it is a fairly marginal situation. Winds diminish on Thursday evening and turn more westerly, then turn back to the southwest for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 51 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 INL 50 70 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 53 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 50 75 49 77 / 40 0 0 0 ASX 54 76 53 79 / 20 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...Wolfe LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...LE MARINE...GSF