317 
FXUS64 KLUB 061939
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains centered just to our west with quite a bit of
monsoonal moisture near and just west of the axis but also
spilling a bit into eastern New Mexico to near the Panhandle and
South Plains border. Just to our south, we are watching a
departing band of mid level moisture that produced morning showers
but now mostly if not entirely to our south. We also have
identified a convergence boundary across the western Panhandle
that looks capable of favorable thunder mention at least into the
evening though without much (yet) bubbling cumulus field. With all
that, for tonight we will favor a low chance of thunder mainly
across our northwest counties adjacent to the deeper remaining
moisture and low level convergence.

Wednesday, Thursday, and into at least early Friday the upper 
ridge will recenter more squarely across west Texas thus shifting 
warmer air back into the area and also keeping the deeper moisture
very near to our west and northwest zones where low thunder 
mention will continue. Temperatures look to warm a few more 
degrees though just shy of Heat Advisory consideration at this 
time. Still, Heat Advisory is something that could come into play 
with relatively little adjustment to either temperature or 
humidity with the Rolling Plains a possible region for this to
occur. 

The upper ridge appears will flatten late into the weekend into
early next week as a notable low pressure system ejects from the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and high plains. Also,
we may see a convectively enhanced disturbance lifting out of
northern Mexico into the southwest that may skirt our area as well
Monday into Tuesday or so. Thus, not quite as warm with at least 
a low mention for thunder during this period. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/99