407 FXUS62 KTAE 060043 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 843 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 .UPDATE... Shower and storm coverage has largely dwindled across the region at this hour, with a few weak showers and storms continuing in parts of the Wiregrass Region. Expect dry conditions through much of the overnight hours, with showers and storms again developing off of the Panhandle coast and spreading inland early Tuesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION [803 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually decrease through the early evening hours with most of the convective activity dissipated by 0-1Z. Similar to last night, thunderstorms will begin to develop overnight across western portions of our coastal waters. A few HREF ensemble members initiate convective activity around 3-4Z while the majority of the members towards 5-6Z. A few showers and thunderstorms will move onshore during the early morning hours. Although severe weather is not expected, stronger storms that could produce strong gusty winds. Overnight PoPs will be around 40 to 60% off shore, 30 to 50% for counties along the coast and around 20% inland. Min temps will be in the low to mid 70s. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... Weak troughing over the U.S. will lift northeastward Tuesday night and an upper level ridge will begin to build eastward on Wednesday. At the lower levels, we'll stay on the western fringe of high pressure, with light low-level flow generally from the west. Afternoon seabreeze storms are expected both days, but with slightly lower coverage Wednesday due to the lack of upper level enhancement. Heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday with isolated storms which could lead to localized flooding. Strong to severe wind gusts can't be ruled out either day, but conditions are not favorable for organized severe development. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... Upper level ridging will continue to slowly expand eastward through the weekend while a weak pressure pattern remains in place at the surface. Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with the sea-breeze are expected. PW values will climb back above 2" on Friday across the area. This increase in moisture, along with steadily increasing temperatures and instability, plus northwest flow aloft could lead to slightly higher chances for stronger storms Friday and Saturday. Heat indices are also expected to climb through the week with this increase in moisture and may approach our advisory criteria (108F) as we head into the weekend. .AVIATION... [Through 00z Wednesday] Any remaining convection this evening is expected to diminish overnight with mainly VFR conditions. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop near the coast near ECP around 12z. .MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms are expected morning for the next several days. Otherwise, expect relatively tranquil conditions with western winds of 15 knots or less and seas of 1 to 2 feet. .FIRE WEATHER... No concerns. .HYDROLOGY... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next several days. Rainfall totals from these storms will likely be in the 1 to 2 inch range, so widespread flooding is not expected. Slow moving storms will drop locally higher rainfall totals, which could lead to localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 91 73 92 73 / 30 50 20 40 10 Panama City 76 88 76 88 77 / 50 50 40 40 20 Dothan 71 91 72 92 73 / 40 50 20 30 10 Albany 72 91 73 92 74 / 40 30 20 30 20 Valdosta 73 90 72 91 72 / 20 50 20 40 20 Cross City 75 88 74 90 74 / 30 50 30 40 20 Apalachicola 76 87 76 88 77 / 50 50 30 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Pullin NEAR TERM...DiCatarina SHORT TERM...Nguyen LONG TERM...Nguyen AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Nguyen FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Nguyen