405 FXUS62 KTAE 051508 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1108 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 .UPDATE... Offshore PoPs through 18Z have been adjusted slightly upward to account for current radar trends. Other than that, no major changes to the current forecast have been made. && .PREV DISCUSSION [642 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... In the upper levels a trough remains over the Southeast. At the surface a weak frontal boundary or surface trough is currently over Southern GA/AL. Some showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward along this feature in the GA/AL Counties. This feature will continue to weaken throughout the day but may enhance afternoon development. POPs will be 50 to 70 percent for most locations today. PWAT values will be near or slightly above 2 inches. Instability will be moderate with CAPE around 2000 J/KG. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. Localized flooding from training storms is a possibility but confidence is low. Highs today will be near 90. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]... The upper level trough that has been in place the past few days will continue to remain across the eastern CONUS through the short term. With this, PoPs will remain elevated Tuesday with generally 40-60% across the land areas, however with slightly drier air (though still plenty of moisture), PoPs are closer to normal on Wednesday with 40-50% in the forecast. Best chances for convection across the land area will continue to be focused on the afternoon into the first half of the night, however could see some enhancement to the overnight activity tonight as a vort max slides across the area. Highs will be in the low 90s with upper 80s along the coast. Lows will be in the lower 70s with mid 70s along the coast. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... Upper level ridging centered across Texas will begin to build in on Thursday, finally helping to shift the upper level trough eastward and bringing northwest flow to the CWA for the second half of the week. With the pattern change, may see PoPs decrease slightly Thursday and Friday, however will see an increase in activity again over the weekend as PW values climb to 2+ inches. Will see a slight warming trend in daytime temperatures with highs in the mid 90s. Lows will remain fairly similar to the short term with lows in the low to mid 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Tuesday] MVFR CIGs are very isolated this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms have already been moving into the FL Panhandle and will spread farther inland by noon. .MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day with the best chances of thunderstorms from the second half of the night through the first half of the day. Winds will be southwest to west through the week with speeds less than 15 knots. Waves will be 2 feet or less. .FIRE WEATHER... Patchy fog is likely this morning. A wet pattern will be in place through Wednesday. Otherwise no fire weather concerns. .HYDROLOGY... Widespread rainfall totals over the next weak are expected to be around 1.5 inches or less and thus significant flooding impacts are not forecast. With slow moving storms and summertime downpours though, localized minor flooding will be possible the next few days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 90 72 90 73 91 / 60 30 50 30 40 Panama City 87 75 87 76 88 / 80 50 50 40 40 Dothan 89 71 90 72 91 / 70 40 50 20 50 Albany 89 72 90 73 91 / 70 40 50 30 40 Valdosta 91 71 90 72 91 / 60 30 60 30 40 Cross City 91 74 89 74 89 / 40 20 40 40 40 Apalachicola 87 75 86 76 87 / 60 40 50 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DiCatarina NEAR TERM...McD SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...Fieux AVIATION...McD MARINE...Fieux FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...Fieux