601 FXUS65 KTFX 050301 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 901 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .UPDATE... Aside from tweaking Max/Min humidity values and tweaking POPs through 12z, no major changes were needed. Any lingering precip remains over SW Montana, and should largely taper off after midnight. -Kredensor && .SYNOPSIS... There will be a daily chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly for the higher terrain of Southwest and Central Montana. Better chances for higher coverage shower and thunderstorm activity should arrive by the end of the week. Temperatures are expected to generally trend near seasonal averages for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... Updated 555 PM MDT Sun Aug 04 2019 (05/00Z TAFs) VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across north-central and southwestern Montana through the TAF period. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms may cause localized category reductions, gusty winds, and turbulence in SW Montana, possibly impacting WYS, EKS, and BZN. The thunderstorm risk appears to be less Mon afternoon and evening, but will still be present for SW Montana and perhaps up toward KLWT. -Kredensor && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through Tuesday, primarily over and near the higher terrain of central and southwest Montana. Breezy conditions and low RH values will create some fire weather concerns for the plains on Monday afternoon into the evening and perhaps a gain for the same time frame on Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to trend near normal. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage Wednesday through the weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ Remainder of this afternoon through Monday night...The westerly flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly as the four corner's high expands moves slightly toward the west of its current position. Some showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop over Southwest Montana early this afternoon. The bulk of this activity expected remain over southern Beaverhead, Madison, and Gallatin Counties, but isolated showers and storms will be possible anywhere south and southeast of a Helena to Lewistown line. Gusty erratic winds will be the biggest threat from today's storms but brief heavy rains and small hail can't be ruled out. Disturbances within the flow may enhance some shower and thunderstorm development once again tomorrow over parts of Central Montana in addition to locations in the southwest. Breezy west to northwesterly winds and low RH values may cause some fire weather concerns over the plains for Monday afternoon into the evening but should stay below red flag criteria. Temperatures for the next couple of days will trend near to slightly above normal. Tuesday through next Sunday...Models continue to suggest that the northwest flow aloft will continue through mid-week while disturbances intermittently pass through the region. A combination of winds and RH values may once again cause some fire weather concerns over the plains, but similar to Monday, it doesn't appear to be of red flag criteria. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop mostly over the higher terrain of the southwest on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with some northward expansion into central areas for the same time frame on Wednesday. A trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast will then usher in a moist and unstable west to southwest the flow aloft, while a couple of vigorous disturbances are guided through the region within the flow. This will result in a noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage on Thursday and Friday. Unsettled conditions continue into the weekend as the aforementioned trough moves on shore and eventually moves through the state. Near normal temperatures are expected through the work week but below normal temperatures are expected for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 91 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 51 88 52 84 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 57 92 56 90 / 10 10 10 10 BZN 55 90 53 89 / 30 10 10 10 WEY 46 83 45 83 / 40 30 20 20 DLN 54 86 53 86 / 20 10 10 10 HVR 56 92 56 89 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 55 86 55 85 / 20 30 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls