721 FXUS61 KBTV 041918 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 318 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide ideal late summer weather to the region through Monday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures gradually warm through mid week with the next chance of significant rainfall occurring by Wednesday and Thursday with the approach of a slow moving front and increasing humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 318 PM EDT Sunday...Chamber of Commerce weather continues to unfold across the area this afternoon as broad surface ridging builds east from the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Temperatures currently range through the 70s with pleasantly low dewpoints in the 40s and 50s under mainly sunny skies. The high will dominate sensible conditions through Monday night and other than some patchy early morning fog mainly clear skies and light winds will continue through the period. Lows tonight just a tad on the cool side in the 40s to lower 50s in most spots with Monday's highs trending about 5-8 degrees warmer under developing light southerly flow - mid 70s to lower 80s. Enjoy! && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...Eventually the flow aloft becomes southwest on Tuesday and that should allow moisture to return to the area. Thus there could be some late day showers or thunderstorms. Instability and shear are weak and thus not expecting much organization to the storms at this time. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...Southwest flow aloft becomes more pronounced Wednesday through Thursday night. At this time it looks like Wednesday and Thursday should see showers and thunderstorms developing over the entire area each afternoon and evening. Wednesday the convection will be instability driven...but deep layer shear is weak and thus would expect pulse storms that remain below severe limits. Thursday we do see deep layer shear moving over the top of developing instability. Neither the instability or shear look that strong at the moment...but nevertheless something to keep an eye on in the coming days. But this may be the day with the best chances for thunderstorms. The upstream upper trough finally moves into the region Friday into Saturday. Best instability and dynamic forcing shifts east of the area so areal coverage of any showers should become more limited heading into the weekend. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler conditions on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR through the period under building high pressure and mainly SKC. Only exception will be patchy early morning IFR/LIFR fog at KMPV and KSLK from 07-12Z Monday. Winds light north to northwesterly 5 to 10 kts through 00Z before trending near calm overnight, then generally light south/southwesterly around 5 kts after 12Z Monday. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG