176 FXUS63 KDMX 040443 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1142 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/ Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Tonight into Sunday night...High pressure looks to persist throughout the remainder of the weekend and provide dry weather and near normal temperatures. With the surface high becoming centered over the central part of the state by early SUnday morning, radiational cooling fog development is possible and have mention of fog past 09z Sunday. Monday into Tuesday...A cold front enters northern Iowa by the late morning into the afternoon hours on Monday and will be the focus for thunderstorm development into Monday night. Instability increases ahead/south of the front to 2500-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE according to the 03.12z GFS and NAM. Shear is not terribly impressive, at least the low level shear as it is less than 5 knots. Although the 0-1km helicity maybe tops 100 m2/s2 by 00z Tuesday over northern Iowa and with the surface boundary in this vicinity, the tornado threat is certainly non-zero. The low level lapse rates are weak and LCLs not favorable for tornadoes and thus low confident in tornadic threat. Higher confidence in the hail and damaging wind threat with the amount of CAPE and DCAPE present in the afternoon and evening hours. Plus with the 0-6km shear ranging around 30 knots, should be sufficient enough to keep updrafts going long enough for hail development. Wednesday through Saturday...Another shortwave rides the northwest flow aloft WEdnesday afternoon into the evening hours bringing another round of storms. Low confidence with the severe weather potential due to the discontinuity in the timing of the shortwave. The rest of the week remains uncertain as ECMWF and GFS bring additional shortwaves across the region, but remain in disagreement with timing and location. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/ Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Other than a few hour window for patchy MVFR vsby fog over northeastern TAF locations tonight, VFR conditions with light winds continue to be forecast. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Podrazik AVIATION...FAB