049 
FXUS63 KOAX 040420
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Light showers over the western CWA briefly ended before some 
redevelopment this afternoon. Dry conditions will take hold by 
7pm with loss of daytime heating. The next chance of showers and 
thunderstorms will be the primary focus of the forecast as the 
threat for severe weather increases for Monday. 

Water vapor imagery shows a large upper level ridge continuing to 
spin over New Mexico as it has for the past few days. A short wave 
is being drug through Alberta. This overall pattern continues into 
early next week, but the northern wave will work across southern 
Canada over the next 72 hours, dragging a cold front through the 
Rocky Mountains and northern plains this weekend. 

Ahead of this front, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will dry as 
skies clear. Mostly clear skies overnight will lead to lows in the 
lower to mid 60s. 

Sunday and Monday will be 5-10 degrees warmer than Saturday with 
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Monday's heat combined with dewpoints 
climbing into the lower 70s will help create a threat of severe 
weather. A bullseye of MLCAPE of 2000 J/Kg is expected to develop 
in NE Nebraska and NW Iowa with some vertical wind shear overlaid 
as well. The diving cold front may initiate some severe storms in 
the afternoon and evening in this area before they move south. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

High temperatures remain just a bit cooler than seasonal, with 
numbers generally in the lower 80s. The overall upper pattern 
remains mostly the same, but as a trough puhes through the Pacific
Northwest, it will flatten the ridge and bring a more progressive
flow to the central plains. Occasional waves embedded in the 
progged WNW flow will bring more chances for precip for the end of
the week, though the timing and scope are far from being nailed 
down at this point. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Some
patchy fog possible at KOFK and KLNK during the early morning
hours but should dissipate shortly after sunrise. Surface winds 
will remain light out of the south-southeast. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nicolaisen
LONG TERM...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Kern