602 FXUS63 KICT 031721 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 An upper level shortwave took a southern dive through KS and Oklahoma today. A sfc low was analyzed over western Oklahoma with a stationary front extending southeastward into northeast Texas overnight. Elevated convection has has developed in northern OK and south Central KS along the gradient of the 900-800mb moisture transport and nose of a weak 850 jet (20kt). Storms that continue to develop through this morning will likely be efficient rain makers however coverage has been slow to develop. PWs over 2 have been confined to far southern KS, and 1.5 inch PW extending from Kingman to Greenwood Counties to the KS/MO border. It appears the best WAA/moisture transport through the morning hours will mainly be confined to northern OK and bleed slightly into southern KS before diving south with the sfc low as we approach the late morning hours. Therefore leaning toward a drier solution for Central KS, and have lowered pops a bit there. However, high res models suggest a another progressive and subtle shortwave will move swiftly through the 500mb flow through late morning. This may support a few additional isolated to scattered showers, although would like to hedge on a slightly drier side overall given the WAA/moisture transport will be lacking. Extensive cloud cover through at least the morning hours today will limit insolation. Thus, kept with the slightly cooler temps in the low 80s across the area. Expect drier conditions to return Sunday with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. This warming trend will continue into the work week. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 As the subtropical ridge inches westward at the start of the week there is some model agreement that a weak surface boundary and subtle shortwave embedded in the 500mb shortwave will work through the region Monday night through Tuesday and bring with it chances for showers and storms. The upper ridge will re-amplify in the west with the ridge axis running through the Great Basin by mid week. This pattern will put the region in a somewhat unsettled northwesterly flow pattern with several chances for showers and storms late in the period. Expect temperatures in the extended to be near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 Diurnal heating will result in widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon until early evening, mainly across southern Kansas. Some MVFR cigs will linger as well with local restrictions to vsbys in showers and storms. Moist low level flow and light winds will promote areas of MVFR/IFR fog and stratus tonight. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 83 66 87 68 / 40 20 10 0 Hutchinson 83 65 87 67 / 20 10 0 0 Newton 82 66 86 67 / 20 20 10 0 ElDorado 82 66 85 67 / 30 20 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 80 67 87 68 / 90 20 10 0 Russell 85 64 89 67 / 10 10 0 0 Great Bend 84 64 87 67 / 10 10 0 0 Salina 83 66 87 68 / 20 10 0 0 McPherson 83 65 85 67 / 20 10 0 0 Coffeyville 82 67 87 68 / 50 20 10 0 Chanute 82 66 86 67 / 40 20 10 0 Iola 82 66 86 67 / 30 20 10 0 Parsons-KPPF 82 67 86 68 / 40 20 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...KED