482 
FXUS65 KFGZ 031054
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
354 AM MST Sat Aug 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will remain in place through the
period, with daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be warm, with light winds, 
outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION... High pressure over the Four Corners Region will 
continue to build into the weekend into early next week with 
daily chances for shower sand thunderstorms each afternoon. 
Coverage on Friday was more widespread than anticipated due to new
development along outflow boundaries through the afternoon/evening.
Expect a similar situation to unfold for Saturday with convection
firing first along the high terrain and then new development 
being focused on residual outflow boundaries through the afternoon
and evening. With similarly weak steering flow, expect flash 
flooding to be a threat again on Saturday along with gusty winds 
and hail. 

As the high builds into the beginning of the week, temperatures 
will be warm with the warmest days on Monday and Tuesday. 
Temperatures will approach the low to mid 80s across the high 
terrain with temperatures in the mid 90s to 100s across the 
valleys. 

Towards the middle of next week, models still indicate a deepening
trough in the Pacific Northwest. With this, the high will shift to
the east further into New Mexico. This will switch out easterly
flow to a more south to southwest flow with slightly cooler
temperatures for the end of the week. There is still some 
uncertainty on the placement of the high and developing trough. 
Regardless, it appears moisture stays in place for daily 
thunderstorm chances will continue through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect another round of scattered 
shra/tsra and isolated +tsra after 18Z Saturday. Most areas will be 
VFR, except MVFR in stronger storms. Light sfc winds through the 
period, except near thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will 
continue through Sunday. Winds will generally be light, expect in 
the vicinity of storms. 

.Monday through Wednesday...Monsoonal moisture remains in place with
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


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