492 FXUS61 KBTV 021915 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 315 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will generally remain atop the area into early next week. Outside a stray shower or storm across far southern Vermont on Saturday, and a few showers or isolated storms late Saturday afternoon and early evening across northern counties, mainly dry weather is expected into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Mainly a persistence forecast will be offered over the next 42 hours. High pressure continues to dominate regional weather conditions this afternoon with mainly sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s under pleasantly low humidities. Expect the quiet weather to continue into tonight - very similar to last night with mainly clear skies and patchy fog in favored locales, though not widespread given ambient dry airmass. On Saturday generally warm and mainly dry weather continues for many spots. There are two weak features to discuss, the first being a subtle impulse riding through the Mid Atlantic and a moisture gradient setting up across southern VT toward sunrise into the first half of Saturday. This morning's 12Z soundings to our south and recent blended TPW satellite analysis show this boundary quite nicely which is visibly evident as the northern extent of scattered cumulus from a KBUF to KALB line and points south. Near the impulse, scattered moist convection is ongoing across central and north central PA. As the aforementioned feature pushes eastward tomorrow, a few showers or isolated storms will be possible across far southern VT counties and have maintained slight to low chance pops accordingly, mainly along and south of VT Route 4. The second feature will be a mainly dry cold front sweeping south into the area late in the day into the evening hours. Instability and moisture availability are rather unimpressive ahead of the boundary, and as such have maintained only low chance PoPs from 20-30 percent or so across the northern tier of counties in the 4-10 pm time frame or so. Any convection should be scattered in nature so many areas to likely remain dry. High temperatures should be quite similar to today (upper 70s to mid 80s) under light south to southwest breezes. The front then pushes south of the region Saturday night leaving mainly clear skies and seasonable temperatures in the 50s to around 60 by Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 PM EDT Friday...Building 1020mb high pres from the Central Great Lakes into the northeast Conus will produce ideal North Country Chamber of Commerce weather for Sunday/Sunday Night. This will feature plenty of sunshine, mild daytime temperatures, cool nights and low humidity values. Have pops at nil for the time period with potential for a small window of patchy fog in climo favored areas on Monday morning. NAM/GFS in good agreement showing 925mb temps in the 14-16c range on Sunday aftn, which will good mixing per dry air in place should support highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temps quickly drop Sunday night with clear skies and light winds, resulting in lows upper 30s slk/nek to mid/upper 40s central/eastern VT to mid/upper 50s cpv. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 302 PM EDT Friday...The long term will feature a developing mid/upper level trof across the central Great Lakes while a series of short waves and boundaries will result in intervals of unsettled wx for late Tues thru the end of the week. Temps will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal on Tues ahead of boundary, as progged 925mb temps once again climb back into the 20 to 22c, supporting upper 70s to mid/upper 80s in the warmest valleys. A few warmer valley locations could approach 90 once again on Tues aftn, especially if the 12z ECMWF is correct. Still some uncertainty on timing of boundary/moisture and associated amount of instability, which will impact pops. Have continued with chc wording (30 to 40%) for Tues/Tues Night. GFS/ECMWF shows sfc based cape values in the 800 to 1200 j/kg, while deep layer shear increases ahead of approaching short wave trof. In addition, pres gradient tightens, helping to produce breezy south to southwest winds across our cwa on Tues aftn. If frontal timing and short wave occur in peak heating/instability, a few stronger to locally severe storms would be possible on Tues aftn. Mid/upper level trof prevails across the northern Great Lakes while general west to southwest flow aloft continues across the ne CONUS. This will result in additional chances for showers as waves/moisture lingering, while a very gradual cooling trend occurs. The cooling Weds will be more a result of clouds/precip and limited mixing, then actual caa and falling 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles. The trof tries to sharpen/deepen by next weekend , with temps gradually cooling back to near normal values, per 925mb temps in the teens. Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to trof evolution/pop timing and placement of potential qpf, so have trimmed superblend pops in the chc range (30 to 50%). Temps mainly in the mid 70s to l/m 80s for mid week will drop back into the lower 70s to near 80 by next Friday with lows mid 50s to mid/upper 60s. Clouds and higher dwpts will keep overnight lows from falling with some mugginess likely. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Mainly VFR through the period. Only exception will be early morning patchy LIFR fog at KMPV and KSLK in the 08-12Z time frame on Saturday. Otherwise generally SKC expected under light southerly flow with some slight directional variability due to lake breezes and or terrain effects. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...JMG