933 FXUS61 KBGM 311115 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 715 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly finish moving through the area today, bringing more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region Thursday and Friday with drier and cooler weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 630 am update... updated to include a chance of thunderstorms in the far south for the first 3 hours. 330 am update... A surface cold front moves southeast through the region today, followed by an upper level trough this evening. This will set off another round of showers and thunderstorms. The best forcing and instability will be in the Catskills and NEPA. Once again this area is in a marginal chance of damaging winds by SPC and a marginal chance of excessive rainfall by WPC. Parameters are similar to yesterday but with less instability. Precipitable water around 1.5", Cape of 500 to 1k, and wind shear around 20 kts. As seen the last 2 days this should be enough to produce some strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs will be cooler today with only upper 70s and lower 80s. More clouds to fight against. This reduces the low level instability. Still humid with dewpoints in the 60s. Further north across CNY the instability is less as the surface front goes through early afternoon before much heating takes place. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be less here. This evening the thunderstorm will quickly diminish in intensity behind the front. Convection ends northwest to southeast from early evening in the Finger Lakes to around midnight in the Poconos. Skies clear and winds go light again. Valley fog is again a possibility but racing against the dry advection. Most locations have temperatures and dewpoints falling into the 50s. Across the Wyoming Valley and Poconos temperatures fall into the lower 60s. Thursday will be dry and mostly sunny as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes takes control. Near average high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM Update... Broad and dry surface high will keep things quiet in the short term period. High pressure will have a strong hold on the region at the surface. Lack of cloud cover, along with low dewpoints, will support a wide diurnal range of lows in the 50s-near 60 and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Meanwhile, aloft a minor upper trough over the region will initially have consequence because of low precipitable water values actually slipping under an inch. However, by Friday afternoon into Friday night, we will get into more of a gradient in precipitable water. Northeast PA to southern Catskills NY could thus have isolated thunder pop up as minor instability becomes realized from gradual reintroduction of moisture. Vast majority of the area however will remain dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 400 AM Update... Conditions over the weekend remain overall on the quiet side with generally dry weather during the morning, and some scattered diurnally-driven afternoon/evening showers and storms. There does not appear to be any real significant forcing mechanism to generate strong thunderstorms, so should be mainly showers and weak storms until close to sunset when the boundary layer subsides and stabilizes. Ridging at both the surface and aloft should lead to dry weather Monday, but model consensus depicts that this may break down towards midweek with better chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 630 am update... IFR for 2 more hours at ELM with valley fog. RME/ITH have an fuel alternate MVFR cig now which should only last until 13 or 14z. BGM could also have an hour or two of IFR/MVFR as the valley fog lifts up. AVP is VFR but a slow moving cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the hour during the next hour. If the heavy rain lasts into AVP vsbys could fall to IFR while cigs fall to MVFR. This afternoon another chance of MVFR with thunderstorms between 18 and 22z. With today's cold frontal passage some showers and thunderstorms are possible in CNY but not widespread enough to include. Tonight VFR up to at least 06z but valley fog might occur at ELM again. Light and variable winds tonight. West to northwest winds around 6 kts today. Tonight back to light and variable winds. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...BJT/MDP AVIATION...TAC