025 
FXUS64 KSHV 300929
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
429 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday/

Convection is already developing in Northeast Texas and Southeast
Oklahoma along and north of the Interstate 30 corridor along a 
very diffuse surface boundary as a weak upper level disturbance 
moves south through East Texas. Coverage of thunderstorms should 
increase later this morning, while also becoming more confined to 
areas south of Interstate 30 and primarily farther east into 
Arkansas and Louisiana. Additional development is expected along 
remnant outflow boundaries left from yesterday's storms. The 
storms should gradually become more confined to areas south of 
Interstate 20 as the weak surface boundary moves farther 
southeast. Model guidance is in decent agreement that most of the 
convection should rapidly diminish this evening with the loss of 
daytime heating.

Yet another weak shortwave should dive south along the Mississippi
River from Missouri and into the ArkLaMiss region by midday 
Wednesday. As the surface boundary stalls just south of the 
forecast area, isolated to widely scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will remain possible through the overnight hours 
tonight into Wednesday, mainly southeast of a line from Lufkin to 
Monroe.

Daytime high temperatures today and Wednesday should be coolest 
across our southern-most parishes of Louisiana, where the rain 
could keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s today, before 
rebounding back to near 90 degrees F on Wednesday as rain chances 
decrease.

CN

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday night through Tuesday/

An upper ridge will build into the Southwest CONUS and over into the 
Southern Plains region just west of our CWA, with troughing over the 
srn CONUS during the extended period. This will allow for northerly 
flow aloft to setup over the region. Chances for convection will 
remain in the forecast through early next week as disturbances round 
the periphery of the upper ridge to our west and move into our 
region within the flow. Some of this convection could occur during 
the evening and overnight periods as MCS development could be 
possible from diurnal driven storms upstream.  Cloud cover and rain 
will keep afternoon temperatures slightly below normal during the 
period with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019/ 

AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex, models suggesting showers to develop along I-30
shifting down into the I-20 corridor terminals during the 
early morning. Tempo groups 09-12Z prevailing for several hrs 
perhaps as weak fropa edges into NE TX and works SE during the 
day, but winds look to vary for another day before bcmg ENE into 
Wed. Convection will continue off/on in vcnty of this weak frontal
boundary Tues/improving Wed. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  74  92  74 /  60  20  10   0 
MLU  87  72  90  72 /  70  20  20  10 
DEQ  91  72  93  72 /  10   0  10   0 
TXK  90  73  92  72 /  30   0  10   0 
ELD  89  72  92  71 /  50  10  10   0 
TYR  93  74  94  74 /  30  20   0   0 
GGG  91  74  93  74 /  50  20  10  10 
LFK  90  74  93  73 /  70  20  20  20 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/20