730 FXUS61 KBTV 300207 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1007 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures continue across the North Country. A slow moving cold front will approach the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few storms on Tuesday will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and brief, gusty winds. Temperatures will become more seasonable as cold front moves east Wednesday. A dry and pleasant weekend is in store for the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1003 PM EDT Monday...No significant changes were needed with this update. A few showers are holding on in portions of eastern NY but these should continue to dissipate as they move eastward toward south central VT. Hence anticipate just some patchy fog over night, though debris clouds from the aforementioned showers may lessen fog development. Dewpoints continue to increase into the mid and upper 60s, making for a very muggy night. The forecast has this all covered, so have just made minor tweaks to incorporate the latest observations. Previous discussion...One isolated cell exists just south of Poultney along western Rutland County. The rest of the forecast area is covered with fair weather cumulus as ridging continues to build over the area. Beyond 5 PM, the chance for showers in western Rutland and the Northeast Kingdom comes to a close. Temperatures are on the warm side with mid 80s to lower 90s across the valleys with lower 80s across higher terrain. We will remain warm and muggy tonight as a scattered deck of mid-level clouds, high dewpoints, and light southerly winds keep the potential for radiational cooling at a minimum. Expect lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For Tuesday, a prefrontal trough is expected later in the afternoon. Before then, another day of hot conditions are anticipated for the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys, which lie east of approaching clouds. A few areas could see heat indices up to 95, but the coverage and duration will be spotty. Nevertheless, it is encouraged to be wary of heat-related illnesses. During the afternoon, scattered showers and storms develop as CAPE values reach 1000-1500 J/kg. As the afternoon progresses, mid-level flow accelerates to 30-35 knots, which will impart some shear over the region. Additionally, the lower heating over the St. Lawrence Valley from greater cloud cover will generate a weak baroclinic zone across the region, which should be reinforced by some deformation in the flow. The result will be the chance for some organization as storms develop. Thus, the chance for locally heavy rain and gusty winds have been added into the forecast. Beyond sunset, diurnal instability will gradually fall, but dynamical support from the approaching front and vort lobe should keep a 30-40% chance for overnight showers possible with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two as well. With ongoing showers, lows should settle in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 PM EDT Monday...Composite analysis for Wednesday shows a cold front approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley around 18z with this boundary not moving through until Wednesday night. Still looking at instability ahead of the front across much of our area. However it will not be on the order of what it has been the last two or three days. This is in response to convective debris clouds and showers that will exist in the morning over much of the area. There should be some destabilization as the day wears on with highs getting into the mid 70s to lower 80s and dew points remain in the 60s. As a result...areal coverage of showers and isolated storms will increase...especially across Vermont. However...deep layer shear is displaced well east of the area and thus feel threat for strong or severe storms will also be east of the area. So have kept precipitation as mainly showers with isolated thunderstorms. As mentioned earlier...front moves southeast across the area and precipitation will come to an end from northwest to southeast. Low temperatures will be cooler than the past few days with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 322 PM EDT Monday...Overall looking at dry northwest flow aloft across the entire region Thursday and Friday with high pressure right over the area. Highs will be right around seasonal normals. A cold front will try and move down from Canada on Saturday...but it will be late in the day and not a lot of weather is expected from it. Could be a few showers near the border late in the day with dry weather over most of the area. Temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be a degree or two above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Winds become 5 knots or less overnight. Patchy fog may bring MVFR conditions to KSLK, and IFR/LIFR to MPV, from 08z to 12z. Winds pick up to near 10 knots after 12Z and will scour out fog. Showers/thunderstorms will move from west to east Tuesday afternoon, reaching the St Lawrence Valley 15-16z, and the Champlain Valley 19-20z. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms, along with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Hastings/Haynes