881 
FXUS63 KTOP 290443
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Scattered high-based showers and isolated thunderstorms producing 
very light precipitation have been common from central portions of 
Kansas into eastern portions of Kansas and much of Iowa today 
downstream of a relatively-strong upper level trough for mid-summer. 
Lower level conditions remain warm though gusty south to southwest 
winds were bringing dewpoints back into the middle to upper 60s and 
increasing instability ahead of a modest cold front entering 
northwest Kansas early this afternoon. 

Coverage and intensity of precipitation is still anticipated to 
increase over the next several hours as destablilzation increases 
along and ahead of the upper trough and surface front. Mid-level 
lapse rates will remain meager but downdraft CAPE does increase to 
around 1200 J/kg in north central Kansas around 0Z and could allow 
for isolated downbursts in the strongest storms. Overall setup 
continues to suggest scattered coverage of precipitation in limited 
low-level saturation and mainly elevated forcing with decreases 
in instability taking place quickly with sunset. A much drier 
airmass builds in late tonight into Monday afternoon as another 
upper trough digs southeast into the Great Lakes to return 
northwest flow to the region. Highs only fall off a few degrees 
from today however in strong insolation. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Much of the extended portion of the forecast brings at least minor 
potential for precipitation. Northwest flow regime persists with 
surface ridging to the east/northeast allowing for a deep veering
wind profile and periods of enhanced isentropic upglide. The 
first round may occur in north central Kansas late Monday night 
into early Tuesday but greater potential for the area as a whole 
comes Tuesday night into Wednesday and Wednesday night into 
Thursday as moisture depths begins to increase. The most favored 
timing will be in the late evening to early morning when the low-
level jet is maximized. Elevated lapse rates may support some 
thunderstorms and locally heavy rains in possible training however
there is much uncertainty on where these favored areas may be. 
Severe weather potential appears low at the greatest in this 
regime. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the timing and 
persistence of convection, but the presence of the baroclinic zone
still brings the likelihood of a notable gradient across the area
from west to east. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Scattered TSRA continues to impact KTOP/KFOE through 08Z as the 
front approaches KMHK from the northwest. High cloud bases with
activity should keep VFR ceilings overnight. Light winds veer to 
the north aft 15Z with speeds near 10 kts throughout the 
afternoon. 

&&


.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto