354 
FXUS65 KFGZ 281200
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
500 AM MST Sun Jul 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly
over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains today. Deeper 
moisture will gradually move into northern Arizona Monday and 
Tuesday leading to increasing showers and thunderstorms each day. 
Wednesday will see the most widespread thunderstorm coverage with 
locally heavy rain possible. Afternoon and evening monsoonal 
storms will continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The high pressure is centered over southern
California/northern Baja will stay in place through today bringing
a dry northwesterly flow over northern Arizona. The very dry mid 
to upper level air aloft and subsidence heating has a strong cap 
in place over the area, inhibiting convection today in spite of 
the low level moisture present. Expect only isolated showers and 
thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly southeast of Show Low. A thin
cirrus shield off the large MCC last night over Sonora, Mexico is
moving north and will delay/reduce the diurnal heating this 
morning, further limiting energy available for convection.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...The ridge builds back over the Four Corners
area Monday opening the doors to a south to southeasterly
monsoonal flow and the abundant deep moisture present over 
Sonora, Mexico and the Gulf of California. This shift in the
pattern brings a trend of increasing monsoonal storms spreading 
over northern Arizona through Wednesday. Monday will see scattered
thunderstorms over the White Mountains and isolated thunderstorms
along the Mogollon Rim and the Chuska Mountains. By Tuesday, deep
moisture will have advected into the area for widely scattered 
showers and thunderstorms over most of northern Arizona. GFS and 
Canadian model runs indicate an inverted trough working its way 
around the southwest edge of the high Tuesday night with possible 
nocturnal activity moving south to north across the area. 
Confidence is low in the nocturnal activity at this time; stay 
tuned for updates on this. 

WEDNESDAY & BEYOND...By Wednesday, 1-1.5 inches PW will be over
all northern Arizona with higher amounts south of the Mogollon
Rim. Look for wide spread showers and thunderstorms across most of
the area with locally heavy rain leading to possible flash 
flooding across Arizona. Remember, turn around, don't drown; most
flood deaths occur in vehicles. Looking farther out, model 
guidance is in fair agreement that the overall pattern of 
monsoonal flow should continue into the weekend giving us 
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each 
day.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Look for mainly VFR conditions 
over the next 24 hours. The exception, isolated thunderstorms mainly 
over the White Mountains Sunday afternoon. Winds light and variable 
overnight becoming west to northwest around 10 mph by Sunday 
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances on
Sunday will mostly be over the White Mountains and eastern 
Mogollon Rim. The limited coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will continue into Monday afternoon. West to northwest winds on 
Sunday will become more southwest on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...The return of deeper monsoonal moisture 
on Tuesday will bring increased humidity and chances for 
thunderstorms through the rest of the week. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...Suk


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff