533 FXUS62 KMLB 271847 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 .DISCUSSION... Current and tonight...Intrusion of drier mid-level air appears to be limiting coverage and timing of convection as of mid- afternoon. Other mechanics in the form of breeze boundaries and ample heating should allow for sct coverage through late afternoon. Have trimmed back earlier forecast of coverage through 00Z mainly due to due to effects from airmass drying. Most all pcpn should wrap up over land areas by around 10 pm, and a slight chc of storms will continue over the marine area into early Sunday. modified prev disc... Sun/Mon...Remnant frontal trof extending from north FL up the wrn Atlc will keep the wrn flank of the Bermuda Ridge axis weak and disorganized. Vrbl H100-H70 flow AOB 5KTS, shifting from W/NW to E/SE depending on the timing of the sea breeze circulation and proximity to the trof axis. W/SWrly flow thru the H85-H50 steering lyr winds btwn 5-10KTS will to favor the east side of the peninsula for diurnal convection, though the weak flow will allow the east coast sea breeze to make greater inland penetration with late aftn blow back focusing storm activity along the I-95 corridor. Upstream moisture profile remains on the low side with H100-H70 mean RH arnd 70pct...H85- H50 dewpoint depressions btwn 5-10C. Slightly higher moisture values over the Bahamas ascd with a weak easterly wave...this moisture will gradually work its way into the FL Peninsula/ern GOMex on Mon. H30-H20 analysis shows the trailing end of a 40-50KT jet streak lifting up the ern sea board that that will sag acrs the region and providing modest upr lvl evacuation. Due to the slightly drier moisture profile on Sun (PWats dropping to arnd 1.75") and weak steering flow, will go with sct PoPs with a 40- 50 coverage. Increasing moisture on Mon will bring PoPs back to 50-60pct. Primary threat will be flooding rain due to the weak steering flow and resultant slow storm motion. Strong wind gusts psbl on Sun with the entraining of the higher mid lvl dewpoint depressions. Temps near avg for late July. Tue/Fri...Wrn flank of the Bermuda ridge will slowly rebuild acrs central/north FL, allowing deep lyr flow to shift from S/SW Tue/Wed to E/SE Thu/Fri. Precip will shift more to the interior as the southerly flow allows both east/west coast sea breezes to form and push well inland while the steering flow pushes precip toward the NW peninsula. Will maintain 50/60 PoPs thru midweek, decreasing to 40- 50 by late week with the shifting flow pattern. && .AVIATION...Sea breeze will push slowly inland with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing through late afternoon. Greater potential for tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will be toward the coast from KMLB southward through early evening, where greater moisture/heating and late day boundary collisions are favored. Convection should then diminish into the evening with VFR conditions overnight into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Wave guid continues to show wv heights a little too high. Have trimmed down seas to around 1-2 ft over the waters into Sunday. Sun/Mon...Vrbl winds as a remnant frontal trof over north FL washes out while keeping the wrn flank of the Bermuda Ridge weak and disorganized. Light to gentle N/NE breeze from Cape Canaveral northward...E/SE south of the Cape. Seas 1-2FT areawide. Sct shras/tsras each day. Tue/Wed...Ridge axis gradually rebuilds over central FL, allowing sfc/bndry lyr winds to return to a more seasonable SErly direction in a light to gentle breeze. Seas 2-3FT. Chc shras/tsras each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 73 88 / 30 50 30 50 MCO 74 94 74 93 / 20 50 20 60 MLB 74 91 74 89 / 40 40 30 60 VRB 72 91 72 90 / 40 40 30 50 LEE 75 94 74 92 / 20 50 20 60 SFB 74 94 74 92 / 20 50 20 60 ORL 76 94 75 92 / 20 50 20 60 FPR 71 90 72 90 / 40 40 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ JP/PG/DKW