659 FXUS62 KFFC 271758 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 158 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 ...18Z AVIATION UPDATE... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 455 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... All in all, a quiet forecast looks to continue this short term period. Broad surface high pressure will continue along the eastern seaboard. Main concern will be shower and thunderstorms chances over the NE mountains this afternoon and early evening and again Sunday afternoon. This is where the best forecast instability is suppose to be both days and very minimal elsewhere. Forecast high temperatures are running around 2 degrees of normal across most of the area today and Sunday. Forecast low temperatures are running within about 4 degrees of normal tonight. Overall confidence is medium to high. BDL LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/... Staying fairly dry at the beginning of the extended with a wetter pattern setting up days 4 through 7. Temps will also be on the rebound with daily highs still expected to climb a degree or two each day through the end of next week. The stationary frontal boundary over the northern gulf and north FL stays fairly stationary through Tue/Wed of next week. This front is unable to push northward as High pressure over the Mid atlantic states continues to dominate to the weather pattern over north and central GA through the beginning of next week. This ridge does put GA in moist east to southeasterly flow which will slowly increase precip chances. Looks like we will only see isolated areas of showers and thunderstorms Monday with the best chances of precip moving in Tues/Wed. This is when the ridge over the Mid Atlantic breaks down and a cold front pushes into NW GA. This front moves very rapidly southeast out of the Mid MS river valley Monday evening, and moves in across NW GA Tuesday morning. The models are showing as this front pushes into the state it looses a lot of it dynamics and becomes a bit unorganized after it crosses the southern Appalachians. The models are also showing very little instabillity with this front so sticking with the current thinking of not much expected in the way of severe weather this forecast period. Precipitable water values slowly increase across the area with reading today in the 0.80 to 0.90 inch range to 1.4 to 1.5 inches by Tuesday/Wednesday. This is a definite indication of not just increased precip chances but increased precipitation amounts going into next week. 01 && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions are expected to continue today/tonight with SCT060 into the evening. Light easterly surface winds will be less than 10 kts, becoming light and variable to calm tonight and tomorrow. BKN to SCT 060-070 expected tomorrow afternoon, otherwise no aviation concerns will be present. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 67 91 67 / 5 5 10 10 Atlanta 88 69 88 68 / 5 5 20 10 Blairsville 82 61 82 62 / 30 20 40 30 Cartersville 89 68 89 68 / 10 10 20 20 Columbus 90 70 91 69 / 10 5 10 10 Gainesville 86 67 87 67 / 10 5 20 10 Macon 91 67 91 67 / 5 5 10 10 Rome 90 67 90 68 / 10 5 20 20 Peachtree City 89 67 90 67 / 5 5 10 10 Vidalia 92 68 93 69 / 10 5 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....Deese AVIATION...Thiem