296 FXUS61 KCLE 271040 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 640 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be pushed further south and east of the region today with a piece eventually settling across the Carolinas on Sunday. A cold front will sink southward into the central Great Lakes and stall near Lake Erie. The following stronger cold front will cross the region on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cloud cover may be briefly mostly cloudy at a few locations this morning but expect it to thin as we develop some afternoon cumulus. Previous Discussion... Another day of above average warmth is expected but how much warmer than yesterday may be impacted by a few more middle and high level clouds. Current thinking is the the low level warm advection will overcome the cloud cover with temperatures a couple degrees warmer at most locations. We will need to monitor some low level convergence across Ashtabula county into NW PA that should occur along a lake boundary. This convergence and an upper level trough moving across central Ontario into Quebec may be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms. Another area to watch would be near the southern edge of the higher terrain of the Mid Ohio region. This area could see an isolated thunderstorm or two around maximum heating this afternoon. Any of the thunderstorms will be short lived and all should dissipate by sunset. The cold front that is associated with the trough moving eastward across Canada will sag southward and likely stall north of Lake Erie. However outflow from the thunderstorms that it does generate will drift toward the south shore of Lake Erie late tonight. The location that has the best chance to see these persist will be across NW PA around sunrise Sunday morning. After looking at some model soundings for Sunday it appears there will be a bit of a cap south of the frontal boundary which will at least limit any new convective development. For now we have gone with an isolated/scattered thunderstorm mention, mainly across the northern half of the county warning area. The best chances would be across NE OH into NW PA. Used the scattered wording in the zones to imply that it will not rain everywhere. So think of it as hit and miss thunderstorms. It will remain warm on Sunday with highs ranging from the lower 80s inland NW PA to around 90 for the central and west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A few showers and thunderstorms may linger across eastern portions of the area into Sunday evening before the chance ends as shortwave ridging builds overhead. An area of surface low pressure will track out of the Plains, crossing the Upper Great Lakes on Monday ahead of an upper level trough approaching the Great Lakes from the west. It will take some time for moisture to increase across the area and expecting a cap to limit or prevent convection until arriving in Northwest Ohio late in the day. Otherwise removed pops from the southeastern counties with just isolated activity along the northeast lakeshore. Monday will be another hot day with most locations in the upper 80s. Moisture advection continues on Monday night bringing an expansion of showers and thunderstorms. The axis of deeper moisture will be along and east of the I-71 corridor by Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The cold front will be slow to arrive, settling southeast into the area Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Another piece of shortwave energy will move through the base of the upper trough on Wednesday. This feature will support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon on Wednesday before drier air arrives from the northwest. Temperatures will drop back closer to seasonal norms for the remainder of the week with highs near 80 degrees. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Region with quiet weather to end the week. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR conditions expected through the day at most locations with some afternoon cumulus developing. Cant rule out an isolated thunderstorm across NE OH into NW PA along a lake boundary. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in and near these isolated thunderstorms but it does not appear they will impact any of the terminals. Southerly winds will shift to the southwest by afternoon and should be under 12 knots at most locations. Winds my become gusty across NW OH this afternoon as the atmosphere mixes a little deeper. Gusts up to 20 knots will be possible. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Saturday night into Sunday in thunderstorms. Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday as a cold front impacts the region. && .MARINE... South to southwest flow expected on Lake Erie today although may see some onshore flow developing east of Cleveland this afternoon for a few hours. Southwesterly winds increase to 10 to 20 knots tonight into early Sunday which will lead to choppy conditions in the open waters. It looks like the higher waves will remain offshore but will need to keep an eye out for possible Small Craft conditions east of Willowick if winds end up a little more westerly. A cold front will finally move southeast across Lake Erie Tuesday night with a wind shift to the northwest. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...MM MARINE...KEC