891 
FXUS63 KMPX 270917
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
417 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Thunderstorms have slipped south into Iowa early this morning,
with clear skies and patchy fog across the CWA. Drier air has
worked south and dew points have fallen into the 50s across
portions of central MN. Surface high pressure will pass through
the region today. Aside from perhaps a few fair wx CU this
afternoon, clear skies will continue into much of tonight. Temps
will be a bit cooler than yesterday.

A shortwave over Utah this morning will work its way around the 
southwestern mid level ridge today and tonight, eventually
sparking thunderstorms over the western High Plains/WY/SD later
today. As the wave continues eastward, it will take the complex 
of thunderstorms with it across SD and into MN by Sunday morning.
A surface low and MCV associated with the complex of storms will
deepen through the day as it tracks somewhere across central MN
into northwestern WI. Pwats will rise to around 2 inches Sunday
and the LLJ is expected to strengthen modestly in advance of the
system. These elements, and large scale lift with the trough, 
will allow convection to expand in coverage by Sunday afternoon.
Training cells along the instability gradient/warm front would
lead to an enhanced risk of flash flooding. 2 to 3 inches are 
easily possible in some places considering how efficient the 
moisture-laden atmosphere is expected to be. The best risk of this
is currently expected to be somewhere near a line from Madison to
Litchfield and Rice Lake, but will ultimately depend on how far
north the warm front lifts. Increased PoPs to 90-100 percent along
and north of this line. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be
needed for parts of the area.

To the south of the warm front, there is a conditional risk for 
severe weather. Cloud cover and weak mid level lapse rates may 
temper instability, but if breaks can develop in the overcast 
across southern MN, CAPE could increase to perhaps 2000 J/kg. A 
strong southwest mid level jet between 500 and 800 mb will act to 
lengthen hodographs. Bowing segments capable of wind damage and 
brief tornadoes would be possible along the eastward moving cold
front in the afternoon and evening. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Widespread thunderstorms will exit the area to the east Sunday 
night into Monday morning, with a relatively dry stretch expected 
next week as cooler and drier northwest flow develops aloft and 
high pressure dominates at the surface. Temperatures will start 
out the week below normal, with a few pleasant summer days 
expected as highs only reach the mid to upper 70s and overnight 
lows drop into the 50s. I would not be surprised to see lows drop 
into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday morning across portions of 
central Minnesota and west- central Wisconsin. Will continue to 
mention a chance for thunderstorms across western and southern 
Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as guidance 
continues to show a weak shortwave round the periphery of the 
upper level ridge over the central plains. However, it is possible
that the bulk of the forcing from this feature and any precipitation
remains to sour southwest over South Dakota/Nebraska. Temperatures
look to warm back into the low to mid 80s for the second half of 
next week as heights rise with the upper level ridge nosing more 
into the upper Midwest and our flow aloft becoming more zonal. 
Another shot at thunderstorms looks possible in the Friday/Saturday
timeframe as a more potent shortwave approaches the area and acts
to temporarily suppress the ridging over the region. Typical 
timing discrepancies still exist at this range with this feature 
so will keep PoPs low for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Thunderstorms continue to move south away from the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected through the period, except some patchy fog may
develop overnight near STC, RNH, and EAU. 

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR possible with TSRA likely. SE wind 5-15 kt bcmg SW. 
Mon...VFR. NW wind 10-15 kt. 
Tue...VFR. NW wind 5 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF