773 FXUS61 KBGM 261713 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 113 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Continued high pressure will keep sunny skies and warmer temperatures over NY and PA through the weekend. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day, but the majority of the area will experience fair weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1030 AM update... Residual stratus from morning fog burned off around 14z. We expect mainly sunny skies for the remainder of the day with an isolated shower possible over our northwestern counties due to convection firing along the lake breeze and translating southeastward. Temperatures will peak between 80 and 85 degrees. Previous discussion... Patchy valley fog is forming once again early this morning but will mix out quickly after sunset. Upper level ridging along with surface high pressure in the vicinity will lead to another sunny day. CAMs indicate the most likely chance for isolated convection will be from the Finger Lakes region south through the higher elevations of the central southern tier to Bradford/Wyoming counties in northeast Pennsylvania. In a weak wind regime convergence in the lake plain is sometimes enough to fire isolated activity. Model soundings show a weak mid level cap that will also help to limit convective activity. All these factors say isolated convection at best in the above mentioned area. Highs will range from the upper 70s in the Catskills to mid 80s in the lake plain and valley areas. Tonight will be clear again with patchy valley fog. Lows will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Saturday...Upper level ridge flattens as surface high pressure moves along the east coast. Conditions will be mostly sunny with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Models indicate more precipitation but lack of forcing and continued weak mid level cap will keep convective activity isolated. Will continue with slight chance POPs most areas but the best chance for an isolated thunderstorm would be in the higher terrain of the western Catskills and Steuben/Yates counties. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Moisture will increase on Sunday as high pressure pushes east into the Atlantic and W-SW flow increases over the region. Model soundings indicate some decent instability developing by mid to late Sunday afternoon near 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Weak shortwave is also highlighted passing the region Sunday afternoon/evening in the GFS and Euro. This should be enough forcing combined with the increased instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, but coverage should quickly diminish after sunset Sunday evening with the loss of heating. Temperatures will be above average for Sunday , with highs in the mid to upper 80s and a warm night as well as lows will likely only fall to the mid to upper 60s except across the the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 325 AM Update...Really not too much in the way of changes to the long term forecast, except that models continue to slow down the passage of a cold front, which may net come completely through the area now until Wednesday. Because of this trend, have increased PoP through Wednesday evening. Will have to continue to monitor how the forecast unfolds the next few days, as the front may become nearly stationary over the area, which could lead to heavy rainfall and possibly flash flooding...as PWATs will be 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal by Tuesday according to GEFS. As we head to the end of the week and into next weekend, model solutions are now highlighting high pressure building back in over the area, but the GFS lingers the stationary front just south of the region and this could lead to some showers or thunderstorms to still spread into NE PA and SE NY. Previous Discussion... Warm and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms around for much of the extended period. A long wave upper level trough begins to amplify across the central Great Lakes during the day Monday. This will put central NY and northeast PA under a warm southwest flow. At this point Monday is forecast to be the warmest day of the week; with highs 85-90 and dew points reaching the mid to upper 60s. There will be a chance for late day Thunderstorms, especially across our Central NY zones. A slow moving frontal boundary then moves through Tuesday into Wednesday as more upper level energy dives into the long wave trough. Latest guidance shows plenty of instability over the region and modest amounts of moisture, as PWATS rise to around 1.5-1.6 inches. Overall, this should lead to more cloud cover and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms on these two days. These factors should also knock down temperatures a few degrees, especially by Wednesday. By the end of next week, there are, as expected some minor differnces in timing/position of features in the models. In general it seems the upper trough and front slow and nearly stall over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The ECMWF allows a pocket of drier air in a NW flow regime and a surface high to build over our area. Meanwhile, the GFS is slower, leaving behind additional weak PVA, moisture and instability. Took a blend of the guidance for now on days 7-8, which gives slight chance to low end chance PoPs for a few showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures should fall back closer to the seasonal average, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows around 60. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Except for a few fair weather cumulus clouds over the terminals, skies will remain clear through the next 24 hours with light winds forecast. River valley fog will form again at KELM early Saturday morning. A brief period of IFR visibilities and ceilings is forecast between 9z and 13z. Outlook... Saturday afternoon...VFR but very brief restrictions possible in isolated storms. Sunday through Tuesday...Chance of afternoon showers and storms with associated brief restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...DJP