538 FXUS64 KBMX 261142 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019 .UPDATE... For 12Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0324 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019/ Today and Tonight. We continue in a quiet weather pattern this AM. While some reporting sites are not quite as low as yesterday morning, we remain overall with cool/below normal temperatures for late July. This continues to be due to a surface high pressure ridge across most of the Eastern CONUS, now centered from New York to Virginia. This ridge will shift some through tonight becoming more oriented along the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Deep South. This will be in response to a low pressure system and front moving across the Dakotas/Central Canada and into the Great Lakes Region. Across Central Alabama, we will see a moderating airmass through tonight with still lower humidity but slowly rising values. Winds will transition to a warmer east to southeast flow around the shifting ridge through tonight. 08 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0324 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019/ Saturday through Thursday. Central Alabama will be underneath a weakness in the mid/upper-level subtropical ridge through the period, aided by weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft downstream of a prominent anti- cyclone centered near the Four Corners. For this weekend, high pressure centered along the East Coast will maintain low-level ESE flow over the area, preventing significant moisture return and maintaining the quasi-stationary front near the Gulf Coast. There will be some enhanced moisture around 700mb, but with a subsidence inversion and little to no MLCAPE, chances of a stray shower appear to be 10 percent or less for most of the area, with mainly just continued scattered high-based cumulus expected. The only exception would be in the far southwest counties where weak onshore flow could yield an isolated shower there Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the low 90s in most areas, but dew points will remain comfortable for late July in the low 60s. A fairly potent shortwave and surface low will move through Ontario on Monday, causing a weak cold front to sink southeastward. Moisture will begin to increase across the western counties Monday afternoon allowing for the potential for isolated to widely scattered convection. Tuesday appears to have the relatively best chance for rain as PWATs increase to around 1.8 inches ahead of the front. Will keep PoPs in the scattered category given weak forcing and some model timing differences. Next week's front will be much weaker than this week's front and will lack a strong push, so it will likely dissipate by Wednesday. Models diverge somewhat on potential disturbances/areas of dry air aloft for Wednesday/Thursday, and will keep PoPs near climatology (30-40%) for these days. There are no heat advisory concerns through the period. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours. We are still under the influence of a high pressure. However, as the ridge becomes elongated with the center shifting to a New York to Virgina line, we will see the winds across Central Alabama respond to a more east/southeast direction for Friday. Some fair weather cumulus clouds are possible between 6 to 9 KFT as well. Although moisture is beginning to slowly increase, we have not reached the point where precipitation is a concern. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A relatively dry airmass will remain in place through the weekend, with relative humidity values falling into the 35 to 45 percent range each afternoon and minimal rain chances. Moisture and chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return for next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 65 89 65 90 / 10 0 10 0 10 Anniston 87 67 89 66 89 / 10 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 89 69 91 68 91 / 10 0 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 91 69 92 69 92 / 10 0 10 0 10 Calera 89 68 90 67 91 / 10 0 10 0 10 Auburn 88 68 89 68 89 / 10 0 10 0 10 Montgomery 91 69 92 68 92 / 10 0 10 0 10 Troy 89 67 91 67 90 / 10 0 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$ 08/32