378 FXUS62 KFFC 260157 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 957 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 .UPDATE... No major changes were necessary to the short term forecast as the forecast continues on track. Only made minor tweaks to temperatures and cloud cover through the overnight hours. The overnight period is expected to be mostly quiet with low temperatures running about 2 to 7 degrees below average. Reaves && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Dry air mass remains centered over the forecast area this afternoon. Moisture return slowly starting to set up by tomorrow as the surface ridge axis shifts across the Appalachians onto the Atlantic coast. May see just enough moisture and instability return for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms across the far south tomorrow afternoon. Moisture a bit more limited elsewhere, however, little bit of orographic lift across the northeast mountains merits a slight chance there as well. 20 LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Only minor adjustments have been made to the extended forecast based on the latest guidance, which has been quite consistent with respect to the next several days. The previous long term discussion remains valid, and is provided below. King PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... The extended forecast starts off at the beginning of the transition back to a wetter pattern with afternoon and evening showers expected through day 7. Temps will also be on the rebound with daily highs climbing a degree or two each day through the middle of next week. The stationary frontal boundary over the norther gulf and north FL begins to lift back northward Friday night into Saturday morning into south and central GA. The Bermuda ridge builds back in across central FL which pushes the old front back northward increasing moisture across GA through the beginning of next week. As this front pushes back northward it will be very weak and fairly unorganized. Precip chances increase across the area Sat/Sun and continue through day 7. Instability remains weak to moderate, and combined with no real focusing mechanism not expecting much in the way of severe storms through the period. Precipitable water values slowly increase across central GA from 0.80 to 0.90 inches Saturday to 1.4 to 1.5 inches by Monday afternoon/evening. This is a def indication of not just increased precip chances but increased precipitation amounts going into next week. 01 && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the taf cycle. Afternoon cu field expected again on Friday around 15-16Z. Winds will be easterly around 3 to 8 kts over the next few hours, diminishing to 5kt or less and more variable overnight. Winds are expected to be east again on Friday, around 5 to 10kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium to high on all elements. Reaves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 64 89 66 89 / 0 5 5 5 Atlanta 68 88 69 87 / 0 5 5 5 Blairsville 56 81 60 81 / 0 10 10 20 Cartersville 61 89 64 88 / 0 5 5 5 Columbus 67 90 69 90 / 0 5 5 10 Gainesville 63 87 66 86 / 0 10 5 5 Macon 61 90 65 90 / 0 5 5 5 Rome 61 90 66 89 / 0 5 5 5 Peachtree City 62 89 64 88 / 0 5 5 5 Vidalia 70 91 69 90 / 5 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Reaves