532 FXUS62 KCHS 260108 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 908 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail inland with a stationary front situated to the south through the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Guidance continues to slow down any progression of convection from approaching the middle and upper Georgia coast through daybreak. Other than delaying mentionable pops even further into the day Friday, no major changes were made to the going forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday through Sunday: Overall, the setup will remain remarkably persistent this weekend featuring high pressure inland and a stationary front well to the south across the Florida peninsula. This should result in an unseasonably dry airmass across most of the forecast area through the weekend. On Friday and Saturday, models show precipitable water values of around an inch or slightly less along and north of I-16. In fact, dew point values are forecast to fall into the upper and possibly even mid 50s for our inland zones Friday and Saturday afternoon. By Sunday moisture will recover a bit but will still be quite low for late July. Model soundings show a strongly capped atmosphere with plentiful mid-level dry air, certainly not conducive to convection. The only area that will have a notable chance of rain will be those areas along and south of I-16 closer to the Altamaha. However, current model precipitation fields keep nearly the entire forecast area dry through this entire period, except for portions of the coastal waters. Rain chances have been decreased in the forecast, and now only feature 20-30 percent chances in this area south of I-16 at times through Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be below normal thanks to the dry air and persistent northeast flow. Highs are forecast to peak in the low 90s inland and upper 80s closer to the coast each day, with a slight tick upward by Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with some potential for mid 60s further inland. Such temperatures would be on the order of 2-5 degrees below normal for late July. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models are in fairly good agreement in the long term period. High pressure will remain in control of the local weather through mid week, although the pressure pattern will become rather weak. Towards the end of the period on Wednesday, models are hinting at a weak cold front or trough of low pressure edging towards the area. Focused highest rain chances on that day, although they were capped at 30%. Otherwise, no standout triggers for convection expected for Monday and Tuesday, so slight chance PoPs were maintained. Temperatures will be near normal. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Low end chance for flight restrictions with any showers/thunderstorms at KSAV. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure will prevail inland while a stationary front is to our south. Expect east to northeast winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Friday through Tuesday: The surface setup will result in a relatively tight northeast to southwest oriented pressure gradient through the weekend. Winds will be strongest in the afternoon and evening periods on Friday and Saturday, surging into the 15-20 knot range. By Sunday into early next week the flow will gradually turn more onshore with decreasing wind speeds. Seas will be highest through Saturday, generally 2-4 feet. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$