768 FXUS65 KTFX 252048 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 248 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A brisk westerly flow aloft will reside over the region for the next few days. As a result, expect afternoon highs around seasonal normals for the next week. There will be a small chance for a passing thunderstorm most afternoons over Southwest MT, but some storms will produce little precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday...Overall a westerly flow aloft will reside over the region, with a few upper level disturbances trying to push northward into Southwest MT at times. Dry conditions tonight will continue into Friday, but a weak disturbance will allow for the potential for an isolated storm, mainly south of I-90 on Friday afternoon/evening. Another disturbance moves into the same area on Saturday, allowing for another small chance for passing storm, mainly for areas south of Townsend. Sunday will be a touch cooler for many areas, but still warm for late July. For Monday through Thursday, an upper level disturbance will move a bit further north into Central MT by Monday evening. This disturbance will be slightly stronger, and have a better chance to produce a bit more widespread storms. Some of the these storms could produce strong wind gusts, which could create additional fire weather concerns. Weak ridging tries to build over the region for Tuesday through Thursday, with slightly above normal temperatures expected during this period and only small chances for a passing storm. Brusda && .AVIATION... Updated 1145 AM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019 (18Z TAFs) VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period. Some mid clouds along the divide will be possible with a chinook arch, which could also create some turbulence. Otherwise, no significant impacts are expected at the terminals through the period at this time. Brusda && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warning will continue into the evening for low humidity and gusty winds over Central and North Central MT. Wind speeds will diminish on Friday, thus no highlights are in effect for Friday at this time. For Saturday, wind speeds increase and humidity will fall to around 10 percent once again over North Central MT. Thus a fire weather watch has been issued. This watch could be expanded south into zone 118 if forecasted wind speeds increase a bit. Most storms will stay south of Bozeman Friday through Sunday...however, on Monday, storms could push a bit further north into Central MT, and some of these storms on Monday evening could be dry or produce strong wind gusts. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 51 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 49 87 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 51 91 59 89 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 47 89 56 87 / 0 0 20 20 WEY 40 84 48 79 / 0 0 30 50 DLN 49 86 56 83 / 0 0 20 10 HVR 53 89 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 51 84 58 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and Fergus Counties...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty...Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest...Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and Fergus Counties...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty...Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls