928 FXUS63 KILX 251623 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1123 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 High pressure is providing a banner day across central Illinois today. As the center of the high shifts to the east of Illinois, southerly flow will begin to bring higher dewpoints into the area. However, the real muggy air is another couple days away, when dewpoints possibly climb into the low 70s this weekend. A shortwave in western Iowa is pushing mid and high clouds toward western IL, but the balance of our day should remain sunny. Even tonight, as the wave passes across northern Illinois, we only expect an increase in clouds, with any sprinkles remaining N of our CWA. Winds today are generally light southeast at less than 10 mph, and that should continue this afternoon into evening. Updated sky cover for the rest of the day, otherwise, no real changes were needed to the ongoing forecast database for the morning update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Region dominated by high pressure ridge over Central IL this morning...with the ridge axis elongated a bit on a NE/SW orientation. Light winds in the overnight with some localized higher dewpoints set up for some very patchy fog on satellite imagery. For that matter, it is patchy and short lived so far. Will remain possible through the morning hours, and leaving it in the forecast. At 500 mb across the CONUS, a trough in the east and a ridge in the west persist. Flow at h5 over ILX is predominantly northerly. NBM has been pretty solid with the forecasted high temps in the mid 80s and that continues today. Light winds and dewpoints in the upper 50s makes today very similar to yesterday. Dry forecast, though again will mention the trend of the GFS to a wet forecast. Even the fog this morning is too sporadic to consider enough evapotranspiration in the boundary layer to boost a pop mention in the forecast. Going into tonight, the ridge axis slips to the east and the winds start to come around to more southerly, but the NBM may be a smidgen too warm as it has been of late. Dropped the guidance by a degree or so for the overnight low. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Return flow on the back side of the ridge axis brings a more southerly wind at the surface. Moisture from the Gulf States, and heat from under the SWrn thermal ridge advect into the region. This southerly advection starts a slow warming trend, and is setting up for more precip in the forecast, but not until Sunday night for Central IL. Increasing heat and moisture in the boundary layer will pull heat indices up to low to mid 90s again for Saturday and Sunday ahead of the rain. The front drags through the region associated with an upper low passing north of the Great Lakes. However, the cool front is not much in the way of an airmass change by the time it settles into Central IL. Though the rain lingers into Tuesday in the east...the temperatures really do not drop much behind the boundary. The airmass is modifying as the front loses steam and convergence at the surface...resulting in another warm and muggy airmass for the end of the forecast. Will go ahead and mention again the issues with the GFS and its trend to diurnal QPF. Not included in the dry forecast, the GFS is pushing a wave/associated precip through Friday night. Although the NAM and ECMWF are currently dry, they both pick up on the wave aloft...and are starting to evolve with precip closer to ILX. Will be watching this one closely. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies will remain clear with light and variable winds. Though low levels are dry, some light fog is possible at the TAF sites toward morning. Sites in the west, PIA and SPI could see little more fog than the other sites...especially like CMI. Not confident it will be predominate but going to have light fog starting at 10z at all sites with TEMPO at SPI for 2sm. Once fog dissipates by 13-14z, clear skies continue until late morning when more CU should develop. To make TAFs simple, going to blend the ending of the fog and beginning of the CU. Ridge should be pushing east of the area so expecting southeast winds tomorrow, but speeds will remain less than 10kts. Clear skies and light winds will return tomorrow evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Auten