189 
FXUS65 KBOI 251531
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
931 AM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies and unseasonably cool temps greeted most
folks this morning. Clear skies will remain into this afternoon, 
but temps will get up to near or just above normal this afternoon 
as upper level ridging builds in. Moisture is still set to return 
late today and especially tomorrow from the south and west.
Convection is forecast for Friday afternoon and evening, and
models still disagree on placement and amount. We will be studying
this closely and will issue any needed updates to the forecast in
the afternoon package.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Increasing high clouds this afternoon. Light 
surface winds becoming NW-NE 5-10kt during the afternoon. Winds 
aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-15kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...Another surge of monsoon
moisture will push into the forecast area late tonight and Friday
within the southwest flow. Cloud remnants from Thursday convection
over Nevada, will be over the area early Friday - which will 
inhibit instability a bit, and make pinpointing convection for 
Friday afternoon and evening very difficult. Models are still 
quite broad with areas of showers/thunderstorms, with about the 
only consistent signal that there is a better chance near the 
Nevada border, than there is further north - since drier, more 
westerly flow continues to dominate across Washington and the 
Idaho Panhandle. The monsoon moisture gets pushed off to the east 
again on Saturday and Sunday as a shortwave passing eastward 
across British Columbia strengthens that westerly flow, and brings
it further south across the forecast area. Afternoon temperatures
should remain a few degrees above normal throughout the period.


LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...As the high pressure to 
the south nudges westward, flow over SE OR/SW ID will turn 
southwesterly. A weak shortwave progresses across the region on 
Monday, though any thunderstorm activity is expected to stay to the 
east. Models are in good agreement that the long-term will stay dry 
with little but passing cloud cover. Temperatures will stay a couple 
degrees above normal through the extended.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....AL