812 FXUS61 KBGM 242352 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 752 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Except for isolated afternoon thunderstorms, high pressure will control our weather through the weekend. Temperatures will rise on Friday as a ridge builds into the eastern U.S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 6 pm update... Update to remove thunder. Hourly temperatures and dewpoints were a little high. Just minor adjustments. 2 PM update... Slow moving showers and thunderstorms have developed within a low shear, low-cape (100 j/kg ML Cape) environment this afternoon. Most of the activity originated near the Lake Ontario lake breeze and is tracking over the Finger Lakes. Some of this activity could spread into the Susquehanna Region or Central Southern Tier over the next few hours. Clear skies and light winds will produce patchy river valley fog Thursday morning, mainly between 9z and 12z. Temperatures will fall into the lower-50s with a few readings in the upper-40s possible over our eastern forecast area. A pleasant day is forecast Thursday as high pressure remains in control of our weather. Weak instability and shear point toward additional isolated thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be in control through this period, with mostly sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in the lower to mid 80s). There is a very slight chance of seeing an afternoon pop-up shower or thunderstorm either day, mainly in the Catskills; otherwise dry weather is expected. Lows Friday and Saturday night will likely be in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overall, a typical summertime pattern will be in place Sunday and Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, before likely dissipating after the loss of daytime heating. That being said, this activity will be on the isolated to scattered side and therefore, the majority of the area will likely remain dry, especially Sunday. A slow moving cold front will likely move through sometime during the day on Tuesday, bringing a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. Then this front may stall either in our area, or just south and east of the area. Therefore, there will be additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday. In terms of temperatures, highs will be slightly above normal for most of this period (ranging from the mid to upper 80s). Somewhat cooler weather is expected on Wednesday along with more cloud cover, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday afternoon, except at KELM where river valley fog will likely cause IFR or LIFR restrictions between 8z and 13z Thursday morning. Otherwise skies are clearing this evening as a surface ridge of high pressure moves into the area. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorms will redevelop late Thursday afternoon, mainly across the Finger Lakes and central southern tier of NY. The odds are low for any shower or storm directly impacting a terminal. Therefore, will not include any mention in the tafs at this time. Scattered moderate cumulus development is forecast once again Thursday afternoon, with cloud bases mainly between 5-10 k ft agl. Expect light and variable winds overnight, becoming west- northwest 5 to 10 kts Thursday afternoon. Outlook... Thursday night through Saturday night...VFR other than possible predawn valley fog at KELM each morning. Sunday and Monday...Chance of afternoon showers and storms with associated brief restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP/TAC NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...DJP/MJM