216 
FXUS65 KFGZ 242200
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will continue to bring daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona. The
most widespread coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be
today and Thursday. There will be a slight downturn in the storm
chances Friday into early next week, with warmer daytime
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Model guidance has the high pressure over the Four 
Corners area beginning to drift south tonight into Thursday, then
to the west over the state Friday and Saturday. This pushes dry 
air aloft into the area to give us clearing skies at night and 
into the morning hours. The low-level moisture remains in place 
with precipitable water at or above one inch through Friday. With 
the mostly clear morning skies, expect heating of the moist layer 
to induce afternoon convection. This will also give us about five 
degree warmer high temperatures through the weekend. The pressure 
gradients aloft decreases as the high shifts to the south and 
west, reducing the steering flow through the weekend. These shifts
in the weather pattern will result in a decrease in shower and 
thunderstorm activity each day through Sunday with the greatest 
chances for storms to the east along the Mogollon Rim and over the
White Mountains. Expect the convective activity to be more of 
pulse in nature, forming over terrain and off the outflow 
boundaries.

Looking farther out, shower and thunderstorm activity starts 
picking up again early next week as model guidance returns high 
pressure to the Four Corners. By mid week, northern Arizona should
be back in an active monsoonal pattern with scattered to 
widespread showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00z package...Primarily VFR conditions over 
northern Arizona through the TAF period. Scattered TSRA to persist 
through 04z then diminish. Scattered TSRA to redevelop aft 17z 
Thursday. Stronger storms producing MVFR conditions and wind gusts 
to 30kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep monsoonal moisture will persist across
northern Arizona through Thursday. Thunderstorms could produce 
strong outflow winds, wetting rains, and flash flooding over 
sensitive areas/fire scars. 

Friday through Monday...A drying trend to commence across far 
western Arizona on Friday and spread eastward this weekend. Best 
chances for storms this weekend will be over the White Mountains. 
max temperatures to be from 4 to 6 degrees above normal. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...DL 
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff