733 FXUS61 KBTV 240716 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 316 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough passing through the region over the next two days will provide partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers each day. Temperatures will be seasonal in the 70s to around 80 through Thursday, followed by a warming trend with highs back into the mid to upper 80s to end the week. The weekend looks to begin dry on Saturday, but end with a chance of showers on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 316 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will approach today, keeping us in southwest flow aloft. The pesky mid and high clouds that have been draped across much of the area over the past couple of days will finally move east, but additional cloud cover will develop this afternoon as the trough draws near. A few terrain driven showers will pop up as well, mainly over the Adirondacks. Highs will be in the 70s, with some locations in the CT and Champlain Valleys approaching 80. Skies become mostly clear tonight with lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s. For Wednesday...the upper trough finally swings through, along with a weak surface frontal boundary. As such, anticipate showers to redevelop in the afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. There will be some instability, maybe as much as 1200 J/kg, and this with the stronger forcing means we could also see some thunderstorms, and just more precipitation coverage in general. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 316 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night will be quiet with high pressure remaining over the area, ridging in from the South. Any showers that form Thu afternoon will be winding down following sunset headed into the overnight. Temperatures overnight will drop to the upper 50s to lower 60s, very close to seasonal normals. On Friday we'll continue to have high pressure ridging into the area from the South, but warming trend will continue and 850 temps will reach about 15 Fri afternoon. This will result in maximum temperatures in the 80s areawide. With dewpoints warming into the 60s areawide, should have enough surface instability for a bit of pop up convection around, especially higher terrain. For now have chance of boomers in the Dacks. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 316 AM EDT Wednesday...More of the same for the Friday night through Monday night timeframe. Temperatures will warm a bit each day and surface ridge remains anchored over the southeastern conus, extending northeastward into our area. Flow over our region will mainly be westerly. For now have kept Saturday dry, but models are indicating possibility of a shortwave passing through upper level flow which could help to pop off some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A stronger shortwave will cross the area later in the day Sunday which looks like a better bet for some showers and isolated thunderstorms. Tough to time these small waves moving through the upper atmosphere this far out though. A better bet for some precipitation looks to be in the Monday night into Tuesday timeframe when an actual surface cold front should kick off some precipitation as it drops across our area. Lots of uncertainty though on timing for all of these features this far out in the forecast. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period. Plenty of mid and high level clouds over portions of the area as southwest flow aloft persists. Clearing has occurred from the Adirondacks west, and with light winds, KSLK is expected to see LIFR conditions due to fog up to 12z Wed. Winds will generally be light...with a northwest wind developing after 15z. Speeds however will generally be under 10 knots. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Hastings