175 FXUS65 KABQ 240603 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1203 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2019 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Ceilings on the lower end of VFR are again expected this morning along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and also in Santa Fe. There is plenty of moisture in place for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday afternoon and evening mostly from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, except for numerous cells over the northern and western mountains, and more isolated activity in the south central valleys. The high pressure center aloft should sink southward over southwest CO, steering cells to the south and/or west off NM's high terrain. Wet microbursts will be possible with erratic wind gusts over 40 kt near stronger cells. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019... .SYNOPSIS... The upper high center will be located to the west and northwest of New Mexico through early next week. This will allow afternoon and early nighttime showers and thunderstorms to favor the northern and western portions of the state. A weak upper low may circulate around the upper high center Thursday into Saturday, allowing for an uptick in activity. High temperatures through the weekend will be near to slightly below normal. Slow-moving storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall at times which could lead to flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Moisture has increased over New Mexico, with area soundings this morning showing an increase in PW, with KABQ measuring 1.12 inches. Dewpoints over western and central New Mexico, which have in recent days mixed out in the afternoons, have held steady this afternoon, even locales along the Continental Divide were holding in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The HRRR and and the RAP13 indicate the north central will be favored early this evening for storms, with the RAP13 also painting better precipitation west of the Continental Divide. Cell motion in general will be from northeast to southeast, but storms could also develop on outflow boundaries. Little change for Wednesday in the overall weather pattern, although the NAM12 indicates some drier air will work into the eastern plains for a day. Thursday and into Saturday, models indicate a weak upper low will rotate into the northeast, then through eastern New Mexico. This feature is expected to spark an uptick in convection as the upper high center wobbles a bit to the south and west of it's current position. Early next week, the upper high center drifts back toward the Four Corners. The GFS is more aggressive moving the upper high center to our east towards 240 hrs, but it's tried that before, while the ECMWF was more conservative. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture is up across the area, with good to excellent humidity recovery forecast for the foreseeable future. Decent coverage of wetting storms are forecast through Wednesday as the upper high remains near the Four Corners, but an uptick is forecast Thursday into Friday as the upper high relocates to over Arizona and a shortwave trough rotates around it and moves slowly south across New Mexico. Good chances for wetting storms will then persist through the weekend as the upper high center drifts even further west across the Desert Southwest. The latest medium range model solutions then move the upper high eastward to over northern NM and southern CO going into the middle of next week, leading to a downtrend in daily rounds of storms and an uptrend in daytime temperatures. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$