874 FXUS61 KBGM 232304 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 704 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air will overtake the area during the rest of the week with high pressure building in. Overall the weather will be mostly dry with slightly below average temperatures. We may see a few showers and weak storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 7 pm update... Pops look good with showers ending in the next 2 hours. Upped the cloud amounts with cloudy skies across most of the CWA. These clouds will continue to move east and speed up so by Wednesday morning skies will be mostly sunny. Lowered min temps tonight in the central southern tier to model guidance. 3 pm update... Main concerns in the near term focused on the scattered showers and weak storms rolling s/sewd across the srn Finger Lakes this afternoon...the potential for valley fog tonight/Wed morning...and the development of more scattered showers and weak storms again Wed afternoon/evening. Very weak high pressure at the surface and a wedge of dry air has allowed for mainly quiet/dry weather conditions today. However, an upper trough is dropping in from the north and providing the necessary amt of broad large scale lift to trigger weak convection over wrn/w-central NY this afternoon. Aiding in the development of convection is the cooler air aloft riding over the relatively warm surface...producing moderately steep lapse rates. There is also a sufficient amt of lake moisture being advected in to help with the precip potential. As sunset approaches and the boundary layer begins to collapse, should start to see the convection diminish as it drops south into the nrn tier of PA. The dry air mass in place will allow for mostly clear skies tonight...which will lead to strong radiational cooling, especially in the valleys where areas of fog are expected to develop. Temperatures tonight will be on the cooler side as well, with lows falling into the 50s. May even see a few upper 40s in the Catskills. The upper trough will slow down and still be positioned over the area tomorrow, with enough of an influence to once again trigger more showers and weak storms over a good portion of central NY. Moisture will be limited, but lapse rates should be steep in the afternoon and with a persistent n/nw wind...there is a fairly good chance of isolated to scattered convection developing. Temperatures in the afternoon will warm into the upper 70s with very comfortable dew points in the mid to upper 50s. Another cool night Wed night with temps falling into the lower to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A weak wave will move across NY and PA on Thursday. Though temperatures will be seasonable on Thursday afternoon with dew points approaching 60, the models depict increasing instability due to cooler air aloft. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible, especially during the afternoon. High pressure will slide across the region and bring fair weather to NY and PA Thursday night through Friday night. Highs in the lower- 80s and lows around 60 are forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure under a flattening ridge will hold on through Saturday night. Skies will be mostly clear with temperatures in the middle- 80s. A wave aloft is forecast to rotate across NY and PA on Sunday and bring a chance for a thunderstorm. There is a better chance for thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday as a front moves into the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR prevails through this evening and into Wednesday morning for most terminals. The exception will be valley fog at KELM tonight and through 13-14Z Wed morning. KELM could reach airport minimums between 08Z-12Z. Light north winds and VFR conditions are expected after 15Z. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night...VFR, but isolated afternoon showers or storms possible for NY terminals. Friday and Saturday...VFR other than possible predawn valley fog at KELM each morning. Sunday...May see some restrictions in showers and storms Sunday afternoon. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...BJT/MDP