982 FXUS61 KLWX 231838 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to push south of our region as high pressure builds into our area Wednesday through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front will remain situated to our south over the North Carolina and the Virginia border. Scattered showers will continue for areas southeast of the I-95 corridor. These showers are expected to slowly diminish this evening as the main upper level forcing associated with the 500mb trough shifts further to our south. These showers could linger through early tomorrow morning especially over southern Maryland. Clear skies over northern Virginia and western Maryland may allow for some minor destabilization. Models have between 100 and 300 CAPE along with a trough axis moving over our region. Isolated to scattered showers can't be ruled over northern Virginia, Eastern WV Panhandle and western MD due to a combination of an upper level trough and terrain inducing storms. I have increased pops to account for the formation of possible isolated to scattered showers with a slight chance of thunder. Winds are expected remain out of the N to NE with skies slowly clearing from the west as the upper level trough axis continues to shift eastward. Cooler conditions will move into our region with overnight temps running in the low 50s in the higher elevations to mid 60s along the I-95 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build into our region from the west. An upper trough axis will slowly move across our region from the west. North to northwesterly flow will continue to transport into drier and cooler air into region which will lead to cooler than normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Some isolated showers can't be ruled out over the higher elevations due to the trough axis being overhead of our region but a northerly flow should limit the area coverage. I have kept pops in the 20s and should be limited to the afternoon periods and the western part of our forecast area. A coastal low will form off the frontal boundary to our south and move just off our coast Wednesday afternoon. The tight pressure gradient from the passing low may cause some stronger winds over our coastal areas and eastern Maryland and northern VA. On Thursday, the upper level trough axis will lift eastward out of region and high pressure will remain over our region. Winds will be light and variable mainly out of the north. Temperatures will remain mild in the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term period will feature an extended period of dry conditions, along with ample sunshine, low humidity, light winds, and near normal temperatures. Heights aloft will rise as high pressure builds overhead on Friday. In the absence of any disturbances at mid-upper levels, this area of high pressure will stay in place through the weekend, before shifting just offshore on Monday. With high pressure in control, quiet weather conditions are in the forecast. Temperatures will be near normal, with highs predominantly in the 80s to near 90, and lows mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few showers will be possible for the CHO and MRB terminals but VFR conditions are expected going through the rest of this afternoon. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible as the clouds shift eastward out of the area. General clearing expected through this evening with VFR conditions and light northerly winds expected. VFR conditions will dominant Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure remains over our region. VFR conditions will persist through the long term period with high pressure in control. && .MARINE... Light winds out of the north expected with showers over the southern Chesapeake through early tomorrow morning. Sub-SCA conditions expected A coastal low will move along the eastern sea board on Wednesday which may cause SCA conditions during the early morning through afternoon periods. Sub-SCA conditions expected through the rest of the week. A prolonged stretch of precipitation free conditions and sub-SCA level winds is expected this weekend into early next week. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...KJP/JMG MARINE...KJP/JMG